TNAG-1906-FCO40-2710-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-voluntary-and-mandatory-repat-1989 — Page 67

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELNO 2798

OF 220725Z AUGUST 89

CONFIDENTIAL

нке

27319

224

046142

MDHIAN 2891

TOP COPY Q DIST ?

INFO IMMEDIATE HANOI, WASHINGTON, UKMIS GENEVA

OUR TELNOS 2719 AND 2743: VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE: REPATRIATION

1. THE CSD COUNSELLING TEAM HAS COMPLETED ITS ASSESSMENT OF THE GROUP OF PEOPLE WHOSE APPEALS HAVE BEEN REJECTED AND WHO SEEMED MOST

LIKELY TO ACQUIESCE IN REPATRIATION. 114 WERE INITIALLY IDENTIFIED

AS POTENTIALLY COMPLIANT NON-VOLUNTEERS. OF THIS GROUP, 14 HAVE REFUSED TO TAKE PART IN COUNSELLING. THE OTHERS HAVE RECEIVED

INTENSIVE COUNSELLING OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS.

2. THE CSD'S ASSESSMENT IS THAT NONE OF THE 114 PEOPLE IN THE TARGET GROUP IS PREPARED TO VOLUNTEER, NOR CAN THEY BE RELIED UPON TO ACCEPT MANDATORY REPATRIATION WITHOUT PROTESTING OR RESISTING IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. COUNSELLING HAS ALSO CONTINUED WITH THE 20 PEOPLE AT

PHEONIX HOUSE AND THE RESULTS ARE IN ESSENCE THE SAME.

3. OUR COUNSELLING TEAM HAS HAD TO CONTEND WITH CONSIDERABLE PEER

GROUP PRESSURE AGAINST ANY FORM OF REPATRIATION. WE HAVE DETECTED

WHAT MIGHT BE CALLED COUNTER-COUNSELLING BY HUT LEADERS AND HEADS OF

FAMILIES AGAINST THE ARGUMENTS PRESENTED BY CSD.

4. UNHCR'S COUNSELLING WORK, SUCH AS IT IS, DOES NOT HELP. IT IS DIRECTED AT VOLUNTARY REPATRIATION. UNHCR HAS NOT BEEN PREPARED TO

ASSIST IN COUNSELLING NON-VOLUNTEERS TO ACQUIESCE. THE BELIEF IS

WIDESPREAD THAT WE SHALL NOT USE FORCE TO EFFECT REPATRIATION.

5. WE HAVE CONCLUDED THAT WE ARE NOW VERY UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO

IDENTIFY A GROUP OF 30-50 COMPLAINT NON-VOLUNTEERS. THE SO CALLED

GREY AREA GROUP OF PERSONS CANNOT REALISTICALLY BE USED AS A BASIS

FOR PLANNING REPATRIATION. IF WE WERE TO PRESS AHEAD ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ON THE DAY WE WOULD BE ABLE TO PERSUADE, WITHOUT COMPULSION, A GROUP TO RETURN TO VIETNAM, THERE WOULD BE A VERY HIGH RISK OF FAILURE. AN UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT TO REPATRIATE A FIRST GROUP WOULD HAVE DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCES FOR THE SUBSEQUENT PROGRAMME. RETURNEES WOULD CONCLUDE THAT IF THEY RESIST THEY WILL NOT BE SENT BACK. THE CREDIBILITY OF OUR POLICY WOULD THUS BE CALLED INTO QUESTION AND LOCAL REACTION WOULD BE VERY STRONG INDEED. WE BELIEVE,

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CONFIDENTIAL