TNAG-1906-FCO40-2710-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-voluntary-and-mandatory-repat-1989 — Page 58

CONFIDENTIAL

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054110

MDHIAN 3157

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HANOI

TO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG

TELNO 78

OF 24075OZ AUGUST 89

AND TO IMMEDIATE FCO

INFO IMMEDIATE UKMIS GENEVA WASHINGTON

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Q

HONG KONG TELNOS 2798 AND 2799: VBP: REPATRIATION

1. THE VIETNAMESE WILL CLEARLY NOT LIKE THE IDEA OF MOVING AWAY FROM SECRECY AND TOWARDS THE USE OF LIMITED FORCE ONE LITTLE BIT.

2.

WHY DID THE VIETNAMESE EVER AGREE TO 'ACQUIESCENT'' REPATRIATION IN THE FIRST PLACE QUERY IN THEIR OWN WAY THEY ARE COMMITTED TO THE CPA. THEY WANT TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH HONG KONG AND THE UK SEMICOLON THEY WANT TO STOP OR REDUCE DEPARTURES AND THEY WANT TO SEE MORE VOLUNTEERS RETURN FROM HONG KONG. I THINK THEY SAW CAREFUL USE OF MANDATORY REPATRIATION AS A MEANS OF ACHIEVING ALL OF THIS. AS LONG AS RETURNEES WERE NOT FORCED (IE WERE ACQUIESCENT) THEY COULD USE SIMILAR ARGUMENTS TO SCHWARZ (MY TELNO 433 REFERS) AND IN SOME WAY CLAIM THAT THEY WERE, IN ESSENCE, VOLUNTEERS. THEIR LONG-STANDING AND WELL-KNOWN O POLICY ON NON-VOLUNTARY REAXXXX REPATRIATION WOULD THEREFORE NOT BE TOTALLY OVERTURNED. THE SAME WOULD BE TRUE WHILST SECRETXXXXXXX SECRECY WAS PRESERVED AND NOBODY WAS SAYING ON THE RECORD (A LAST THREE WORDS UNDERLINED) THAT MANDATORY REPATRIATOION WAS HAPPENING OR THAT ACQUIESCENTS WERE QUALITATIVELY DIFFERENT FROM VOLUNTEERS. REMEMBER THACH'S THREAT IN RESPONSE TO PRESS REPORTS TO ISSUE A STATEMENT REAFFIRMING VIETNAM'S POSITION AGAINST NON-VOLUNTARY REPATRIATION, WHILST AT THE SAME TIME PRESUMEABLY STILL WANTING US TO HURRY UP WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF ACQUIESCENTS. I THINK THAT IN THEIR HEART OF HEARTS THE VIETNAMESE HAVE REALIZED THAT THEY COULD NOT GET AWAY WITH THIS FOREVER AND THAT AS TIME PASSED THEY WOULD HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE SOME SORT OF ACCEPTANCE OF ''MANDATORY'' OR ''NON-VLOLUNTARY' ' REPATRIATION BUT THAT THIS WAS SOMETHING FOR THE FUTURE. IN PARTIC- ULAR I THINK THAT THE CENTRE WAS LOOKING FOR TIME TO SELL THE WHLOLE PROGRAMME TO THE PROVINCES.

3.

IF WE NOW ABANDON SECRECY AND EXPLICITLY ADVOCATE THE USE OF LIMITED FORCE, THE VIETNAMESE WILL HAVE TO MAKE AN ABRUPT ABOUT TURN. I FIND IT VERY DIFFICULT TO JUDGE HOW READY THEY WILL BE TO DO

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