CONFIDENTIAL
198
024756
MDHIAN 2090
HKB
243 19
TOP COPY Q DIST ?
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 2719
OF 14113OZ AUGUST 89
INFO IMMEDIATE HANOI, WASHINGTON, UKMIS GENEVA
173
184
YOUR TELNOS 1630 AND 1689. OUR TELNO 2624: VIETNAMESE BOAT
PEOPLE: REPATRIATION
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1 WE AGREE THAT THERE IS SOME ADVANTAGE TO BE GAINED FROM A
POSTPONEMENT. THE EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF THE MANDATORY REPATRIATION ISSUE MAKES IT ESSENTIAL THAT WE PREPARE THE GROUND VERY CAREFULLY FOR THE RETURN OF THE FIRST GROUP. WE DO NOT UNDER
ESTIMATE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR OUR LONG TERM OBJECTIVES SHOULD THE FIRST OPERATION MISFIRE AND PROVOKE WIDESPREAD INTERNATIONAL
CRITICISM COUPLED WITH DISORDER IN THE CAMPS. A POSTPONEMENT WILL ALLOW MORE TIME TO WORK ON US OPINION AND THE RELATED ISSUE OF A UNHCR ROLE IN POST RETURN MONITORING. SEEN FROM HERE, THE MOST VULNERABLE ELEMENT IN OUR PRESENT PLANS IS THE ABSENCE OF A
CREDIBLE POST RETURN MONITORING ARRANGEMENT.
2. THAT SAID, WE MUST ADVISE AGAINST A POSTPONEMENT BEYOND EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE LONGER THE DELAY THE GREATER THE PRESSURE FROM NEW ARRIVALS, A DETERIORATING ATMOSPHERE IN CAMPS AND MOUNTING PUBLIC FRUSTRATION AND ANGER IN HONG KONG. IF THE DATE FOR THE RETURN OF THE FIRST GROUP SLIPS INTO THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER, THE ARGUMENTS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE US AND UNHCR, FOR WAITING UNTIL AFTER SC3 WILL HAVE EVEN GREATER FORCE. WHILE THIS MIGHT MAKE
SENSE IN TERMS OF ENSURING THAT WE REMAIN SECURELY WITHIN THE PARAMETERS OF THE CPA, WE ARE QUITE CERTAIN THAT THE SITUATION IN HONG KONG MAKES IT IMPERATIVE FOR A START TO BE MADE ON INVOLUNTARY RETURN BEFORE WE ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE LENGTHY NEGOTIATIONS WHICH ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW SC3.
3. PUBLIC ATTENTION HERE IS AGAIN FOCUSED ON THE VBP ISSUE AND THERE IS GROWING IMPATIENCE, WHICH IS NOW BEING VOICED DAILY, AT WHAT APPEARS TO MANY TO BE THE GOVERNMENT'S IMPOTENCE IN DEALING WITH THE SITUATION. WE HAVE ENCOUNTERED SERIOUS POLITICAL PROBLEMS WITH THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE HIGH ISLAND DETENTION CENTRE. THE OBJECTIONS TO THIS PROJECT HAVE NOT BEEN BASED SIMPLY ON THE CONCERNS OF LOCAL RESIDENTS ABOUT POLLUTION AND SECURITY. THERE IS A WIDESPREAD AND STRENGTHENING FEELING IN THE COMMUNITY THAT THE
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