TNAG-1905-FCO40-2709-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-voluntary-and-mandatory-repat-1989 — Page 84

CONFIDENTIAL

165556

MDHIAN 5128

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELNO 2561

OF 31094OZ JULY 89

INFO IMMEDIATE HANOI, UKMIS GENEVA

HANOI TELNOS 393 AND 394 AND OUR TELNO MISC 524: VIETNAMESE

BOAT PEOPLE: REPATRIATION

IN THE THIRD TUR WE INDICATED THAT WE WERE CONTENT WITH THE TEXT OF THE DRAFT MINUTE TO BE AGREED WITH THE VIETNAMESE. SEEN FROM HERE, THE WAY IS NOW CLEAR TO CONCLUDE THE AGREED MINUTE AND WE ARE PLANNING FOR THE RETURN OF THE FIRST GROUP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THERE IS HOWEVER AN IMPORTANT TACTICAL ADVANTAGE TO BE GAINED BY DELAYING THE SIGNING OF THE MINUTE UNTIL A DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE RETURN OF THE FIRST GROUP.

2.

RECENT PRESS REPORTS, BOTH HERE AND OVERSEAS, ABOUT OUR PLANS HAVE BEEN VERY UNHELPFUL. WE WOULD LIKE TO BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO DENY THAT ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO THE TIME OF THE FIRST RETURN. IF WE SIGN THE MINUTE IMMEDIATELY WE SHALL NOT BE ABLE TO CONTINUE WITH OUR PUBLIC LINE THAT DISCUSSIONS ARE CONTINUING AND THAT NO FIRM ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED. IF IT BECAME KNOWN THAT ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED AND THE MINUTE HAS BEEN SIGNED WE MUST EXPECT GROWING SPECULATION ABOUT THE DATE AND DETAILS OF THE RETURN OF THE FIRST GROUP PLUS ATTEMPTS TO FRUSTRATE THE PROCESS BY USE OF THE MEDIA, INCITING BOAT PEOPLE TO RESISTING PRESSURE THROUGH GOVERNMENTS. THIS WOULD BE LIKELY TO HAVE AN UNHELPFUL EFFECT ON MORALE IN THE CAMPS IN GENERAL, AND ESPECIALLY UPON THE ATTITUDE OF THOSE WE HOPE WILL COMPRISE THE FIRST GROUP OF RETURNEES.

3.

WE WONDER WHETHER WE MIGHT MAKE THIS POINT TO THE VIETNAMESE AND SEEK THEIR AGREEMENT TO POSTPONE THE FORMAL SIGNING OF THE AGREED MINUTE UNTIL A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DATE OF THE FIRST REPATRIATION EXERCISE. GIVEN THEIR ANXIETIES ABOUT SECRECY, WE THINK THEY MIGHT ACCEPT THE FORCE OF THIS ARGUMENT.

4.

WE ARE PRESSING AHEAD WITH OUR ATTEMPT TO IDENTIFY A GROUP OF

50 COMPLIANT NON-VOLUNTEERS AND WE ARE AIMING FOR A RETURN DATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. IT SHOULD BE

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