CONFIDENTIAL
147071
MDHIAN 4378
BY THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT.
3. WE HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY OBSERVED THEIR REACTION TO THIS COUNSELLING. OUR PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT IS THAT EIGHT OF THE PRESENT GROUP OF 21 CAN BE EXPECTED TO RESIST REPATRIATION: THE REMAINDER MIGHT ACQUIESCE, ALTHOUGH THERE WOULD BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF ATLEAST PASSIVE RESISTANCE IF THEY SAW OTHER RESISTING. NONE IS AT THIS STAGE PREPARED TO RETURN VOLUNTARILY.
4. WE STILL BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE AMONG THOSE WHOSE APPEALS HAVE BEEN REJECTED SOME WHO WILL NOT VOLUNTEER TO RETURN, BUT WHO, FOLLOWING FURTHER COUNSELLING, WILL NOT RESIST. BUT WE ARE LEFT WITH ONLY ABOUT A DOZEN IN THIS CATEGORY FROM THE INITIAL GROUP OF 27. WE DOUBT THAT IT IS WORTHWHILE TO SEND BACK SUCH A SMALL GROUP. WE ARE ALSO MINDFUL OF THE STRONG ADVICE FROM WASHINGTON ABOUT THE NEED TO BE ABLE TO SHOW THAT NO FORCE WAS USED, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FIRST GROUP. AND TO HAVE CREDIBLE WITNESSES TO PROVE THIS POINT.
5. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS THAT THERE ARE NOW A TOTAL OF SOME 400 WHOSE APPEALS HAVE BEEN REJECTED BY THE NEWLY CONSTITUTED BOARDS OF
REVIEW. WE PROPOSE NOW :-
(A) TO MAKE ARRANGEMENTS TO HOUSE THESE 400 SEPARATELY FROM OTHER
BOAT PEOPLE: AND
(B) THROUGH COUNSELLING AND MONITORING, TO IDENTIFY A GROUP OF 30 TO 50 (INCLUDING THOSE FROM THE ORIGINAL BATCH OF 27) WHO WE BELIEVE WILL ACQUIESCE IN REPATRIATION, EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT PREPARED TO VOLUNTEER.
6. THIS WILL INEVITABLY MEAN SOME FURTHER DELAY IN RETURNING A FIRST GROUP, EVEN AFTER WE HAVE REACHED AGREEMENT ON REINTEGRATION ASSISTANCE WITH THE VIETNAMESE. WE REALISE THAT THERE ARE RISKS IN SUCH DELAY. BUT WE HAVE BEEN FORCED TO CONCLUDE THAT RECENT PUBLICITY HAS SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED THE CHANCES OF AN EARLY, SUCCESSFUL OPER- ATION, AND THAT MORE CAREFUL SELECTION, COUNSELLING AND ASSESSMENT OF A FIRST GROUP IS NOW NEEDED. IN PRACTICE, WE SHALL AIM FOR A
DATE IN LATE AUGUST.
7. IN PUBLIC WE SHALL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE LINE THAT WE ARE COMMITTED TO RETURNING TO VIETNAM ALL THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN FINALLY DETERMINED NOT TO BE REFUGEES: THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE ARRANGEMENTS FOR THIS WITH THE VIETNAMESE, INCLUDING THE ARRANGEMENTS FOR MONITORING FOLLOWING THEIR RETURN TO VIETNAM: AND THAT NO FINAL
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CONFIDENTIAL
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