TNAG-1900-FCO40-2699-Future-of-Hong-Kong-briefing-1989 — Page 10

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THE DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT IN HONG KONG

The rapid expansion of exchange with the corresponding institutions in China has helped to uncover such differences in attitude. It seemed that, whatever the orientation of the democracy movement, its appeal to the middle class was bound to become more limited.

Emigration

The community's response to Beijing's opposition to the development of representa- tive government was another upsurge in emigration. In contrast to South Korea and Taiwan, in Hong Kong there were no large-scale mass movements led by opposition parties until the events of May and June 1989. Ming Pao conducted a survey in May 198812 which indicated that 24 per cent of the respondents wanted to emigrate. Among those with tertiary education, the percentage was as high as 46 per cent. In late 1988, another poll in the same series of surveys showed that 28 per cent of respondents hoped to emigrate.

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The irony is that most people emigrate not because there will not be democracy in Hong Kong, but because they feel the pressure of China and have no confidence in Hong Kong's future and China's promises. They obviously do not accept the socialist system in China, which they see as a threat to their values and lifestyle. The businessmen are apparently leaving for the same reasons-not because of the danger that Hong Kong might become a welfare state as a result of the development of representative government in the territory. After all, the vast majority of them are emigrating to the English-speaking democracies of the United States, Canada and Australia. Most people who do not consider emigration are simply unable to emigrate: the option is not available to them.

In a policy speech to the Legislative Council on 12 October 1988 the Governor of Hong Kong, Sir David Wilson, admitted that between 1981 and 1986 an average of 20,000 people had emigrated from Hong Kong every year. The figure had increased sharply to 30,000 in 1987, and was expected to reach 45,000 in 1988. It was also indicated that in 1987 about 3,000 emigrants had returned to the territory, probably after obtaining their foreign passports, and it was anticipated that about 5,000 emigrants would do likewise in 1988.14 The Hong Kong government acknowledges that this phenomenon will continue, but it can offer little to curb the outflow of talent except to establish more international schools and other incentives to facilitate the return of those who have already secured their foreign passports. The expansion of tertiary education is intended partly to fill the vacuum created by this exodus.

At least 90 per cent of the population, however, cannot emigrate; they can only hope for the best. To them, the maintenance of their existing lifestyle-without democra- cy is quite acceptable.

As the democracy movement's leadership has become dominated by activists, many of whom hold electoral office, it has lacked an overall view of the development of the movement and has shown a tendency to respond to events as they happen. The leadership has obviously been over-burdened, but because of the lack of resources or inclination on the part of the leaders, a think-tank or planning group which might have developed a long-term strategy has not been developed. Worse still, competition among

12. Ming Pao, 16 May 1988.

13. See Ming Pao, 28 Nov. 1988. The survey was commissioned by the newspaper and conducted in the second half of Nov. 1988.

14. Reported in South China Morning Post, 13 Oct. 1988.

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