TNAG-1893-FCO40-2687-Visit-by-Francis-Maude--Minister-of-State-for-Foreign-and-Co-1989 — Page 29

CONFIDENTIAL

14 24

MDHIA 5894

5. CHINA'S HARD LINE AND APPARENT UNWILLINGNESS TO LISTEN TO HONG

KONG VIEWS HAS ADDED TO EXISTING DISILLUSIONMENT WITH THE BASIC

LAW PROCESS. THE UNWILLINGNESS OF MAINLAND DRAFTERS TO VISIT THE TERRITORY, THEIR DENUNCIATION OF THE OMELCO MODEL FOR THE FUTURE POLITICAL SYSTEM AND CHINESE STATEMENTS TO THE EFFECT THAT NO

MAJOR AMENDMENTS TO THE DRAFT BASIC LAW WILL BE ALLOWED FUEL THESE FEELINGS. THE RECENT T.S. LO BICAMERAL PROPOSAL HAS BEEN GREETED WITH DEEP SUSPICION PARTLY BECAUSE IT IS A NEW CONCEPT EMERGING AT

THE LAST MINUTE BUT EVEN MORE BECAUSE IT WAS CLEARED FIRST WITH

THE CHINESE BEFORE BEING ANNOUNCED IN HONG KONG. PEOPLE FEAR THE BICAMERAL PROPOSAL REPRESENTS CHINA'S PREFERRED MODEL FOR THE FUTURE POLITICAL STRUCTURE. DESPITE THIS AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES

CHINESE PRESSURE SEEKING TO DETER THEM MODERATE ELEMENTS IN THE BASIC LAW CONSULTATIVE COMMITTEE CONTINUE TO STRIVE FOR CONSENSUS ON A MORE LIBERAL MODEL.

MAINLAND ORGANISATIONS IN HONG KONG

6. OUTWARDLY CHINESE ORGANISATION HAVE RESUMED BUSINESS AS NORMAL BUT, DESPITE THIS THEY ARE STILL IN REALITY DEEPLY AFFECTED BY THE EVENTS OF MAY/JUNE. PROPAGANDA CADRES STILL RESIST THE CURRENT CHINESE ORTHODOXY, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEN WEI PO WHICH STILL PUBLISHES SOME ITEMS CRITICAL OF CHINA. UNITED FRONT WORK CONTINUES TO FOUNDER IN THE FACE OF GENERAL ANTIPATHY TOWARDS

CHINA.

DEMOCRATS AND THE HONG KONG ALLIANCE/HONG KONG AS A BASE FOR SUBVERSION

7. THE INITIAL SUCCESS OF THE DEMOCRACTIC CAP IN MAY/JUNE HAS BEEN BLUNTED BY A CHINESE COUNTER-ATTACK, INCLUDING CRITICISM OF PROMINENT BUT UNNAMED LEADERSOF THE GROUP. CHINESE ALLEGATIONS

THAT HONG KONG IS BEING USED AS A BASE FOR SUBVERSION AGAINST CHINA HAS HAD A MAJOR INTIMIDATING EFFECT ON SUPPORTERS. MOMENTUM

HAS ALSO BEEN LOST BECAUSE OF DIVISIONS AMONG THE LEADERSHIP AND A

FAILURE TO AGREE ON THE DIRECTION TO FOLLOW. A RALLY ON 12

SEPTEMBER TO COMMEMORATE 100 DAYS AFTER TIANANMEN WAS MARRED BY WHAT SOME OF THOSE ATTENDING SAW AS AN IRREVERENT AND

INSUFFICIENTLY SOLEMN PROGRAMME.

EMMIGRATION

8. INTEREST IN EMIGRATION REMAINS AT A VERY HIGH LEVEL. THIS NOW

EXTENDS BEYOND THE PREFERRED DESTINATION COUNTRIES TO SECOND-TIER

ONES. WHEN SINGAPORE RELAXED ITS IMMIGRATION CRITERIA RECENTLY TO INCLUDE BLUE AND WHITE COLLAR WORKERS FROM HONG KONG, THE RESPONSE WAS OVERWHELMING: SOME 320,000 APPLICATION FORMS HAD TO BE ISSUED..

2

PAGE

CONFIDENTIAL