TNAG-1878-FCO40-2669-Student-demonstrations-and-internal-political-situation-in-C-1989 — Page 119

CONFIDENTIAL

-2-

5.

(FEER) is of course not an objective observer but she perhaps caught the emotional spirit of the moment when she addressed a meeting of Amnesty International the day after the rally. She described with pride the dedicated crowd of 40,000 who gathered in Victoria Park on 20 May in the middle of a typhoon, the secretaries in her office coming round collecting money for the Peking students and the huge rally on 21 May: this had finally dispelled the myth that the Hong Kong people were politically apathetic, she said, She was scathing of the liberal pro-democracy groupings in Hong Kong who in their campaign to influence the Basic Law had rallied 7,000 people at most and often only a few hundred. This was hardly surprising, she said, when they were campaigning on a platform of 50% directly elected members of Legco in 1991. Who would now march for "50% democracy"? She described how these same people had failed to grasp the opportunity on Sunday night to address a huge and sympathetic crowd on the subject of democracy in Hong Kong: they had specifically asked that this subject not be mentioned lest they appeared selfish or opportunist and for fear that it might prove counter-productive. The rally was a serious challenge to the pro-democracy group's credibility, she said, and even now they were meeting to decide how to react to this wave of popular feeling. The question facing them now was why wait for China to reform, why not make sure that Hong Kong leads the way? This is all typical demagogic stuff and of course

is at an extreme end of the political spectrum here. Nevertheless I think she is right that the terms of the debate have shifted.

6. According to a challenge had also been laid down to the British Government. With the resignations of two of its drafters the Basic Law was in tatters. The voice of the Hong Kong people, ignored in vote after vote in Guangzhou when the second draft was adopted, had now been raised powerfully in support of democracy. Now perhaps the British Government, and the Chinese government would listen. It is difficult to assess how far such thinking may be reflect in the community. Certainly if it is easy as events in China suggest to discredit the leader who promised "50 years without change" then it is going to be difficult for the communist leaders in Peking to help inspire continuing confidence in Hong Kong.

The immediate impact of the demonstration in Hong Kong has accordingly been to further damage the credibility of the current draft Basic Law in the minds of ordinary people. It is seen as a document whose value is heavily dependent on the nature of the regime in Peking. The pessimists have of course always dismissed it as worthless. The optimists claim to see the old authoritarian Chinese leadership weakening and wish to take this chance to press for as much as possible in the final session of the Basic Law. It will be much more difficult now to commend the current draft to either group. The principal challenge is to the Liberals. It seems likely that they will have to demand more and in broad, simplistic terms if they are to maintain credibility. For Sunday's crowds were inspired by a fervent cultural sympathy and a simple belief in "democracy" as an ideal. Most had probably not even registered as voters for the recent District Board elections. Though there is much talk here now of political activism and people power, it will I think prove difficult for local politicians with specific aims to tap this force.

PP

Yours ever, Likeaher

D G Martin

cc: HE The Governor

(Personal)

CONFIDENTIAL

}