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CONFIDENTIAL
154157
MDHIAN 0787
THAT, WHILE WE APPRECIATED FOREIGN MINISTER NAKAYAMA'S VISIT IN NOVEMBER AND CONTINUING JAPANESE INVESTMENT IN HONG KONG, IT WAS IMPORTANT THAT KAIFU SHOULD HAVE MORE SPECIFIC HELPFUL MOVES TO OFFER OVER HONG KONG WHEN HE VISITED LONDON. OTHERWISE THERE WAS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE PRIME MINISTER WOULD COMPLAIN THAT OVER AIR SERVICES GENERALLY THERE HAD BEEN NO MOVEMENT WHATSOEVER ON THE JAPANESE SIDE SINCE THE TWO PRIME MINISTERS MET IN SEPTEMBER. ΤΑΝΙΝΟ SAW THE FORCE OF THIS PARTICULARLY IN THE CONTEXT OF A GENERAL DISCUSSION ON CHINA AND HONG KONG IN WHICH THE JAPANESE WERE IN EFFECT THE DEMANDEURS.
COMMENT
7. THE JAPANESE MFA WOULD CLEARLY LIKE IMPROVED RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND ARE HOPING FOR UNDERSTANDING OF, EVEN IF NOT FULL AGREEMENT WITH, THEIR PROPOSED MOVES. WE WILL TOUCH BASE WITH MFA NEXT WEEK ON AIR SEPARATION TALKS (AFTER THE EXTENDED JAPANESE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY). ON PASSPORTS, HOWEVER, TANINO HAS CORRECTLY HIGHLIGHTED THE NEURALGIA. I BELIEVE IT WOULD BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE TO OUR MORE GENERAL OBJECTIVES OF ENGAGING JAPAN IN HONG KONG FOR THIS ISSUE TO BE GIVEN PROMINENCE AT THE PRIME MINISTERS TALKS. BUT MORE GENERALLY I WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY ON OTHER HONG FRONTS TO EXERT SOME LEVERAGE ON THE JAPANESE AT A TIME WHEN THEY ARE HOPING FOR OUR TACIT UNDERSTANDING OF THEIR
ACTIONS OVER CHINA. SINCE THEY HAVE TAKEN AN UNCRITICAL LINE OVER OUR REPATRIATION OF VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE AND ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO PROVIDE FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO UNHCR THIS SUGGESTS THAT WE SHOULD FOCUS NOT ONLY ON AIR SEPARATION TALKS BUT POSSIBLY ALSO ON OUR REGIONAL AIR DEMANDS INCLUDING CATHAY PACIFIC'S WISH TO FLY TO SAPPORO. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A LIMIT TO THE PRESSURE THAT WE CAN EFFECTIVELY BRING TO
BEAR SINCE MY IMPRESSION IS THAT THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT HAVE
NOW CONVINCED THEMSELVES THAT THE COMBINATION OF SOME WARMING OF POLITICAL RELATIONS WITH THE CHINESE COUPLED WITH JAPANESE BUSINESS INTERESTS ARE NOT ONLY GOOD FOR JAPAN
BUT ALSO NECESSARY TO AVOID A CERTAIN ISOLATION OF CHINA
AND A POTENTIAL INCREASE OF INSTABILITY IN EAST ASIA.
THEY WILL THEREFORE INCH THIS WAY WHETHER WE LIKE IT OR NOT.
WHITEHEAD
YYYY
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CONFIDENTIAL
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