TNAG-1876-FCO40-2667-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-Japan-1989 — Page 45

Territories.

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Any assistance given by Japan to Eastern Europe would effectively be help for Gorbachev. Such help could not be forthcoming until the Soviet Union adopted a more pragmatic and positive policy towards the East (Fujii).

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Japan traditionally had a minor role economically and commercially in Eastern Europe. It was not, and should not be seen as, a key player (Ishihara).

Developments in Eastern Europe, and particularly East Germany, might escape the careful planning policy of mandarins. People power was a reality. The demand for German reunification, above all on the streets of Berlin and Leipzig, might become irresistible (at least in Bonn)

(Gillmore).

Notwithstanding Gorbachev's recent pronouncements, the progress of perestroika in Eastern Europe would depend upon attitudes in Moscow. If Gorbechev failed in his internal reforms, a successor could jerk the reins tight once again. A reactionary successor to Gorbachev would probably come from within the Party rather than the army; there was no Bonapartist tradition in Russia (Oba).

HONG KONG AND CHINA

8.

He said there were

Mr Howell introduced the discussion. three pressing and distinct issues: the Vietnamese Boat People; British Government decisions on a nationality package; and constitutional developments (particularly direct elections) under the Basic Law. The intrinsic difficulties of the latter problem were compounded by the internal disarray in China. The leadership was at odds with itself and hardly susceptible to reason. Mr Howell appealed to the Japanese to give every possible assistance to the British and Hong Kong Governments at this difficult time.

9.

Points in discussion:

- The Japanese believed that quiet diplomacy was the right technique in dealing with the Chinese at this juncture. They had returned to "middle kingdom" mentality. Meanwhile, the Japanese Foreign Minister was making an official visit to Hong Kong as a sign of Japanese interest. Japan would do what it could to be of assistance (Fujii).

- The difficulties over the Basic Law were further compounded by the shortage of time. The Basic Law was due for promulgation in March. It was unlikely that, between now and then, we would have a coherent leadership to deal with (Gillmore).

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