GF 323
CONFIDENTIAL #
overseas) (30
44.
- 29
The risk remains that Hong Kong will import some
inflation from China. However, Hong Kong's exports to
China in 1988 benefited substantially from China's rapid
economic growth and its need to import more to satisfy its
domestic demand. Hong Kong's export growth to China in
1989 is likely to be slower than in 1988, given that the
growth rate of the Chinese economy seems likely to slow
down markedly and that Hong Kong's exports to the rest of
(31) the world may also slow down in 1989
(Forecast
growth rates in money terms for domestic exports and
re-exports to China in 1989 are currently put at 23% and
(30)
1988
Price index of foodstuffs in :
Consumer price
index for Chinese goods
Index
(Oct 1984-
Sep 1985
= 100)
Year-on-year
rate of increase
(%)
Index
CPI (A)
(Oct 1984-
Year-on-year
rate of increase
(8)
Sep 1985 = 100)
Q2
22
104.0
7.6
111.4
8.3
106.2
8.6
114.6
8.8
Q3
112.2
13.9
119.3
11.2
Oct
110.4
9.5
119.9
10.3
Nov
111.1
12.0
120.4
11.3
Dec
111.7
8.0
120.3
8.6
Jan-Dec
108.4
10.0
116.4
9.6
(31) This would imply that the growth rate of outward
processing activities, and hence that of exports to China for further processing, would slow down as a consequence.
CONFIDENTIAL
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