CONFIDENTIAL
HKB 020/6.
From: RJT McLaren
Date:
22 June 1989
Cc:
See last page
PS/Lord Glenarthur
Private Secretary
ANGLO-CHINESE RELATIONS
1.
R17 2016
Miso Masoun машыденный Ever the 20/6
No
Елеттра
I attach a submission from Mr Millington, FED, which contains a series of recommendations fleshing out the bones of the Secretary of State's statement in the House on 6 June.
2.
In considering these recommendations, I suggest that Ministers should work on the basis of the following assumptions about the present political situation in China:
3.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
While there may still be divisions in the leadership, the hard-line faction is in effective control.
In the short term, that control is unlikely to be seriously challenged.
Because of the age of many of its most important members, and the intract- ability of the economic and social problems which must be addressed, the present leadership may not survive beyond 1-2 years. The death of Deng could be a catalyst for change.
(iv) When change comes, it could lead to
the resumption of reformist policies. But there can be no guarantee that this will happen. There are plenty of young dinosaurs in the Party and the Military in China.
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Against this background, I agree with the objectives stated in paragraphs 8 and 9 of the submission. While we must clearly distance ourselves as much as possible from the leadership responsible for the recent atrocities, we do not wish to lose or wish the Chinese people to lose - the benefits of the longer-term relationship which has been built up so painstakingly in the economic, scientific, cultural and other fields in recent years.
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CONFIDENTIAL
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