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iscussions are unlikely to benefit the opposition greatly. pinion polls have shown that only a relatively small minority of the electorate is in favour of independence. It has, of course, provoked a reaction from the Chinese. An issue much nearer many
voters hearts is said to be that of the fortunes of the stockmarket. It took an unsettling plunge of almost 6% on 28 November, following a steady decline for about a month. Since the KMT had been promising "lots of profits and a long bull run" this must have been disturbing to them, especially when several hundred unhappy investors took to the streets in protest. However, the market recovered the following day after rumours that the proposed tax on transactions would be at a lower level than previously expected, and the KMT can perhaps breathe more easily.
9.
Despite being the freeist and most open elections since the KMT took over, there have been disturbing signs of violence especially against individual candidates. Much of this seems to have emanated from criminals who have been quick to pick up on the opportunities for blackmail and extortion provided by wealthy candidates seeking election. But this cannot account for all the cases. An independent candidate for the Legislative Yuan was shot and critically wounded on 6 November. Two KMT candidates revealed that they had been subject to blackmail threats from gangsters. There is still considerable mystery surrounding the violent death of the veteran opposition leader Yu Teng-Fa in September.
10. On 22 November the KMT Standing Committee approved the appointment of General Hau Pei-Tsun as Minister of Defence, and Lu You-Wen as Minister of Justice (his predecessor resigned over a scandal concerning improper use of his influence). General Hau had previously been Chief of the General Staff, an office he had held for an unprecedentedly long time. A subsequent military reshuffle made the Commander of the Air Force Chief of the General Staff in Hau's place. General Hau has been the leading figure in Taiwan's military establishment and he is also considered one of the most prominent right wing leaders in the KMT. His move to the Ministry of Defence makes him in theory more accountable to the parliamentary body, the Legislative Yuan. But it is unlikely to mean a serious diminution of his influence, or to allay the opposition suspicisions which are not entirely unfounded, that the military, and General Hau in particular, had too much influence in Taiwan's political life.
11. The dissident opposition leader Hju Hsin-Liang who returned secretly and illegally to Taiwan in September, was brought to court for a brief hearing on 16 November. His formal trial on sedition charges is due to take place on 4 December. Opposition demonstrations have already taken place to protest at his incarceration, and the case has taken on a more international aspect with the refusal of entry to the former US Attorney, General Ramsey Clark, who had hoped to observe his trial.
4 December 1989
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Far Eastern Section Research Department
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