TNAG-1821-FCO40-2584-Emigration-from-Hong-Kong-1988 — Page 85

10.

We are also able to make a fairly firm estimate

of the total number of visas to be issued in 1988, even

at this early stage, because of the relationship between

CNCC application and visa issue and after adjusting for

the observed time lag. The estimate for 1988 is 49,000.

Balance of Migration

11.

The balance of migration statistics from 1964

date provided by Immigration Department are at

They must be treated with caution because :

Annex B Annex B.

(a) the data collection system has changed at

various times over the period;

(b) they only include those travelling on Hong Kong

travel documents;

(c) fairly heroic assumptions must be made about

the numbers of students, businessmen and

tourists out of the Territory at any one time.

and "leads and lags" from one year to the

next. In effect, these are all assumed to even

out so that the net outflow figure is assumed

to be attributable solely to emigration.

It should be borne in mind that the single figure for any

year combines the effects of new emigration and the

movements of returned emigrants.

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