TNAG-1821-FCO40-2584-Emigration-from-Hong-Kong-1988 — Page 55

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CONFIDENTIAL

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165663

MDADAN 2188

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO DESK BY 051015Z FCO TELNO 3704

OF 05084OZ OCTOBER 88

INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING

ADVANCE COPY

OUR TELNO 3579 AND YRTELNO 2503:

MY ADDRESS TO LEGCO:

EMIGRATION

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1 I HAVE HAD ANOTHER GO AT THE SECTION ON EMIGRATION IN NOW READS

AS FOLLOWS. GRATEFUL FOR ANY COMMENTS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE:

BEGINS

15/

112. RECENT INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE EMIGRATING MUST BE SEEN

AGAINST THIS HISTORICAL AND CULTURAL BACKGROUND. NEVERTHELESS THEY

ARE A CAUSE FOR CONCERN. ADDED TO THE TRADITIONAL REASONS FOR MOVEMENT IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE AND THE SEARCH

FOR SOME SORT OF INSURANCE POLICY. IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO HAVE ACCURATE STATISTICS TO ASSESS THE REAL NATURE OF THE PROBLEM.

BUT THESE ARE HARD TO COME BY. WE DO NOT KEEP A RECORD OF THE REASONS

WHY PEOPLE LEAVE HONG KONG NOR OF HOW LONG THEY PROPOSE TO BE AWAY.

113. TO GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROBLEM, A GOVERNMENT TASK FORCE WAS SET UP EARLIER THIS YEAR TO GATHER INFORMATION ABOUT

EMIGRATION. THEIR ESTIMATE, AND I STRESS THAT IT IS NO MORE THAN AN ESTIMATE, IS THAT 30,000 PEOPLE LEFT IN 1987, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ABOUT 3,000 FORMER EMIGRANTS RETURNED USING THEIR OLD HONG KONG TRAVEL DOCUMENTS. IN ADDITION AN UNKNOWN NUMBER PROBABLY RETURNED

USING THEIR NEWLY ACQUIRED PASSPORTS. THE TASK FORCE ESTIMATES THAT

SOME 45,000 PEOPLE WILL EMIGRATE THIS YEAR. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW MANY FORMER EMIGRANTS WILL RETURN IN 1988.

BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE NET OUTWARD FLOW WILL EXCEED 40,000.

114. THESE FIGURES NEED TO BE SEEN IN PERSPECTIVE. EMIGRATION FROM

HONG KONG HAS ALWAYS FLUCTUATED A GREAT DEAL. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE MID-1970S, THE AVERAGE NET OUTFLOW WAS ABOUT 38,000 PEOPLE A YEAR.

THE LATEST FORECASTS SHOULD BE SET AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND ALTHOUGH

THEY DO OF COURSE REPRESENT AN INCREASE COMPARED WITH THE PERIOD 1981 TO 1986, WHEN THE ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF THOSE EMIGRATING WAS ABOUT 20,000 PEOPLE A YEAR. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE

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