TNAG-1812-FCO40-2573-Preservation-of-Ohel-Leah-Synagogue-in-Hong-Kong-1988 — Page 129

shot has been fired.

Besides India, Moscow is on Pakistan's back, accusing it of providing the Afghan guerrillas with financial and military

support.

President Zia, himself, is known to be in favour of the

guerrillas launching a full-scale attempt to take Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan.

The Economy

Prior to the recent increase of violence in Pakistan, the country experienced steady economic growth since the First 5-Year Plan was implemented in 1956.

Since 1949/1950, the Gross National Product (GNP) and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country have grown, in real terms, at annual rates of 5.4 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. (The GDP is the total value of goods produced and services provided in a country in one year, and GNP is GDP plus the total of net income from abroad).

In the fiscal year 1984/1985, the Pakistan economy expanded a record 9 percent, a rate more than double that of the previous year.

This was due, principally, to a recovery in the agricultural sector, especially cotton, plus an 8.6-percent increase in manufacturing output.

The agricultural sector is the backbone of the economy since it represents about 24.7 percent of GNP, employs 52 percent of the workforce, and earns about 70 percent of export revenue.

However, weather conditions in Pakistan can seriously affect agricultural production, and, in a bid to avoid another drought like that of 1984, the Government has initiated a project to improve the irrigation systems within the country. Already, Pakistan has the largest canal irrigation system in the world, stemming from the River Indus with its 2 dams, the Mangla and Tarbela.

The main crops produced include rice, wheat, sugar cane, maize and cotton (Pakistan is one of the world's largest suppliers of cotton).

Cotton and rice are the major foreign exchange earners, together accounting for 43.6 percent of export revenue in the 1984/1985 fiscal years, and more than 44 percent of export revenue in the 1986/1987 fiscal year.

In the four years up to mid-1987, the production of cotton increased from about 480,000 tonnes per years to more than 1.3 million tonnes per year an increase of about 270

percent.

A recent world shortage of rice stocks has pushed the

price of rice up more than 142 percent over the last year, from $US218 (about $HK1,700) per tonne to $US310 (about $HK2,420) per tonne.

This could lead to a growth in rice-export earnings in the 1987/1988 fiscal year.

The declining susceptibility of agriculture to the weather, and the improvement of the manufacturing sector, could have led to a stabilizing of the Pakistan economy.

Although the Pakistan economy registered sizeable overall growth in 1986, it was not thanks to the Cabinet Ministers chosen by President Zia and Prime Minister Junejo.

According to many political commentators, these Minis- ters have had little experience in handling day-to-day eco- nomic problems and were even less able to create a vehicle for a long-term plan for the future.

Pakistan has the potential for even greater expansion should the Government get its act together and create a more favourable economic climate.

The GNP for the 1986/1987 period was Pakistan rupees (Rs) 573.1 billion (about $HK255 billion). This represents a growth of 6.1 percent over the same period the previous

year.

This compares to the South Korean GNP growth of 15.3 percent for the 1987 year.

The GDP for the 1986/1987 period in Pakistan was Rs537.3 billion (about $HK239 billion). This represents a growth of 5.8 percent compared to 1985/1986.

This, however, was below the target of a 6.2 percent growth rate, but a severe drought that hit crops affected the agricultural output.

Hongkong registered agrowth in GDP of 13.6 percent for

the 1987 Year.

Exports and Imports

In the last 3 years, 1984/1985 to 1986/1987, a favourable trend of rising exports and contracting imports has been

evident.

It is essential to continue this trend if Pakistan is to reduce its trade gap, but the large imports of capital goods and industrial raw materials will continue to be needed if

Pakistan's ambitious industrialization plans are to be real-

ized.

Pakistan's trade at present is characterized by low exports and high imports, mainly from Japan and the US.

For the 1986/1987 period, Pakistan exported goods worth a total of Rs60.83 billion (about $HK27 billion),

15

·