TNAG-1803-FCO40-2563-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-talks-between-the-UK--Hong-Kon-1988 — Page 273

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MDLIAN 1047

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FM HONG KONG

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INFO PRIORITY KUALA LUMPUR, CANBERRA, INFO ROUTINE BANGKOK, JAKARTA, BANDAR

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SERI BAGAWAN, SINGAPORE, PEKING

VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE IN HONG KONG

VIETNAMESE EFFORTS TO PREVENT DEPARTURES

1. WE HAVE HAD NO ARRIVALS IN HONG KONG SINCE 14 SEPTEMBER AND THE

DAILY AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER IS DOWN TO 143. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO

BE CERTAIN ABOUT THE CAUSE OF THIS QUITE DRAMATIC REDUCTION.

SEASONAL FACTORS CERTAINLY PLAY A PART. IT IS QUITE NORMAL FOR THE

RATE OF ARRIVALS TO FALL DURING SEPTEMBER AND TO REMAIN ON A LOW PLATEAU UNTIL THE SPRING OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR. THE DIFFERENCE THIS YEAR IS THAT THE RATE HAS DECLINED TO ZERO AND THIS IS UNUSUAL.

2. IT SEEMS TO US THAT THERE ARE THREE FACTORS WORKING TO REDUCE THE

RATE OF ARRIVALS. THE SEASONAL TREND IS BASED ON WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH BECOME UNFAVOURABLE FOR THE JOURNEY DURING SEPTEMBER. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES ARE PASSING ON THE MESSAGE THAT HK IS NOW PREPARED TO REPATRIATE BOAT PEOPLE, AND ARE PERSUADING VBP TO RETURN TO VIETNAM RATHER THAN PRESSING ON TO HONG KONG. WE HAVE MADE OUR CONCERNS KNOWN TO THEM ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS AND WE HAVE RECEIVED ASSURANCES OF THEIR BEST ENDEAVOURS.

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3. THE THIRD FACTOR IS OF COURSE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN VIETNAM, IE BOTH VIETNAMESE EFFORTS TO PREVENT DEPARTURES AND THE SPREADING OF

THE MESSAGE IN VIETNAM THAT HONG KONG IS NO LONGER A ROUTE TO RESETTLEMENT. WE HAVE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MESSAGE IS GETTING THROUGH TO VIETNAM AND WE HAVE RECENTLY HEARD REPORTS VIA U.S. CONSULAR OFFICIALS IN HONG KONG THAT THE VIETNAMESE ARE TAKING MORE EFFECTIVE MEASURES TO PREVENT DEPARTURES. WE THINK IT IMPORTANT TO HAVE AS CLEAR A PICTURE AS POSSIBLE OF VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT EFFORTS

BEFORE WE START THE SECOND ROUND OF BILATERALS.

4. ADAMS (U.S. CONSULATE) REFERRED TO AN AUSTRALIAN REPORT FROM HANOI VIA KUALA LUMPUR WHICH SEEMED TO SUPPORT THE IMPRESSION THAT THE VIETNAMESE ARE TAKING ACTION. WE ALSO HEAR THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO ARRIVALS IN MALAYSIA FOR ONE MONTH, AND THAT THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO

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