TNAG-1801-FCO40-2561-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-resettlement-in-the-UK-1988 — Page 29

CONFIDENTIAL

(a) an assessment of the deterrent effect of the new policy;

(b) the provision of 'chapter and verse' to show that a commitment

of 1,000 would be sufficient to make others follow suit.

Home Office officials subsequently asked us (at the behest of Mr

Renton) to elaborate on:

(c) the measures taken in Hong Kong and by other resettlement

countries to equip refugees for life in the West.

Mr Renton emphasised the importance which he attached to (c)

when he met Lord Glenarthur on other business on 14 July.

4.

5. The results of our enquiries are summarised in the attached

draft minute. On (a), it has been particularly difficult to make an

assessment of the deterrent effect of the policy. The relevant

figures for arrival are as follows:

1

-

15 June

16

-

30 June

1

-

13 July

2,849

1,196

2,861

Arrivals in the first week of July amounted to 1,690; and in the

second week 1,171. But we cannot yet state with confidence that

there is a declining trend or that this can be attributed to the

impact of the new policy.

6.

On (b) we have one, but only one, very reliable and authorative piece of evidence that 1,000 could be what is required.

Inevitably

most countries are cagey about stating explicitly in advance what

their requirements would be: an element of judgment must therefore

be involved in our assessment.

CONFIDENTIAL