CONFIDENTIAL
conclude that it is too early to assess the deterrent effect of the new policy on the basis of the figures so far.
4.
However, since the introduction of the new policy (and at least in part as a consequence of it) there has been one welcome and potentially significant development. The Vietnamese authorities have invited the governments of all the countries and territories of first asylum to hold bilateral talks with them on repatriation of non-refugees an offer which we are of course taking up. The talks will provide us with a good opportunity to press the Vietnamese to take more effective action to control illegal departures. But perhaps more importantly, the very fact that talks with Vietnam on repatriation are taking place should help to deter those who are contemplating leaving. This, and the efforts which we and the Hong Kong Government are making to publicise the new policy in Vietnam, should have a significant cumulative effect on departure rates over time. We shall continue to monitor the situation carefully.
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5. On the question of whether a new commitment of 1,000 would be sufficient to elicit a substantial response from others, the most convincing evidence for this is a statement made to us by a very senior US official with responsibility for refugee matters. He announced at a meeting of the ICG in April that a new commitment by the United States would be dependent on a figure of at least 1,000 from us. We believe that this is likely to be the position of the other ICG members such as Canada and Australia, who would take their lead from the United States as well as ourselves. This has
been the most specific of a number of comments from these countries to the effect that they needed to see us take a "significant" number.
CONFIDENTIAL
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