TNAG-1796-FCO40-2556-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-repatriation--including-Opera-1988 — Page 239

CONFIDENTIAL

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The situation in Hong Kong

7. Hong Kong telno 3154 contains a summary of the present position.

It makes gloomy reading. The rate of arrivals has dropped a little

(a daily average of 85 in August compared with 126 for the whole

period since 16 June). But there is no clear downward trend. The

total population of boat people is 25,000. Nearly 9,000 of these

have arrived since 16 June. Past trends suggest that a further

5,000 could arrive before the end of the year.

Action in hand

8. While we work out our approach to a further round of talks, we

are

maintaining pressure on the Vietnamese to curb departures.

There is as yet no evidence that they have taken effective

action to that end.

concentrating as our immediate objective on accelerating the

processing, by UNHCR and the Vietnamese, of volunteers wishing to return. These are now coming forward in

significant numbers (over 100 so far) as the reality of their

bleak future in Hong Kong sinks in. Their well-publicised

return would have a powerful deterrent effect. If possible

we would like the Vietnamese to take the volunteers back

before the next round of talks: but this may be

over-optimistic.

maintaining a dialogue with UNHCR with the aim of encouraging

them to adopt a flexible approach in working out their own

role.

The Next Round of Talks

9.

For the next round the Vietnamese will expect the usual

alternation of venues: in practice this means Hong Kong or London.

CONFIDENTIAL