TNAG-1795-FCO40-2555-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-repatriation--including-Opera-1988 — Page 34

656

CONFIDENTIAL

FM FCO

TO DESKBY 16010OZ HONG KONG

TELNO 2095

OF 15110OZ AUGUST 88

CONFIDENTIAL

HKD 243/8

RECENS

16 AUG 1988

ami

163641

MDHOAN 2382

TOP COPY Q DIST ?

INFO PRIORITY UKMIS GENEVA, HANOI, BANGKOK, PEKING, KUALA LUMPUR

INFO PRIORITY

TOKYO

635

643

YOUR TELNO 2984 AND OUR TELNO 2069 (NOT TO ALL): VIETNAMESE BOAT

PEOPLE IN HONG KONG: THE WAY FORWARD

1.

AN INTER-DEPARTMENTAL MEETING ON 12 AUGUST CONSIDERED THE

ASSESSMENT IN YOUR TUR AND THE WAY AHEAD.

ASSESSMENT

2.

WE AGREE THAT WE CAN DRAW SOME ENCOURAGEMENT FROM THE FIRST

ROUND OF TALKS IN HANOI. BUT WE MUST MOVE CAUTIOUSLY AND ASSESS

THE PROSPECTS REALISTICALLY. WE FULLY UNDERSTAND THE ENORMOUS PRESSURES THAT YOU FACE AS A RESULT OF CONTINUED HIGH ARRIVALS, STRETCHED RESOURCES AND THE POSSIBLE UNREST IN THE CAMPS. ALL THESE ARE POWERFUL ARGUMENTS FOR URGENT ACTION TO RESOLOVE THE PROBLEM.

3.

(B)

BUT THE FOLLOWING FACTORS ALSO HAVE TO BE BORNE IN MIND: (A) ALL THE LESSONS OF HISTORY SUGGEST THAT THE VIETNAMESE WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND HARD-NOSED NEGOTIATORS, WITH

WELL-DEFINED ECONOMIC AND DIPLOMATIC OBJECTIVES OF THEIR

OWN. IN THE LONG TERM THESE PRESUMABLY CENTRE ROUND

EMERGENCE FROM THEIR PRESENT

DIPLOMATIC ISOLATION OPENING THE WAY TO SUBSTANTIAL

DEVELOPMENT AID FROM THE WEST:

IMPORTANCE

BUT THIS IS OF SUCH IMPORTANCE TO THEM THAT THEY WILL BE

PREPARED TO WAIT TO GET THE RIGHT TERMS. IN THE SHORT

TERM THEREFORE IT IS WE WHO ARE DEMANDEURS. ALL WE HAVE

TO OFFER AT THIS STAGE IS, AT BEST, LIMITED REINTEGRATION ASSISTANCE OF NO DEVELOPMENTAL

AND A MEASURE OF INTERNATIONAL RESPECTABILITY. BUT WE

ARE ASKING FOR A LOT. IF WE FORCE THE PACE OR ACT

INSENSITIVELY (AS, ARGUABLY, THE AMERICANS HAVE OVER MIAS), THE VIETNAMESE HAVE IT IN THEIR POWER TO PUT AN END TO THE NEGOTIATIONS (FOR EXAMPLE BY REFUSING TO GUARANTEE THAT THOSE WHO RETURN TO VIETNAM WILL NOT BE

PUNISHED) AT LITTLE IMMEDIATE COST TO THEMSELVES. THESE

ARE ARGUMENTS FOR DEALING WITH THEM CORRECTLY AND FOR

OBSERVING THE DIPLOMATIC NICETIES (FOR EXAMPLE OVER THE

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