TNAG-1794-FCO40-2554-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-repatriation--including-Opera-1988 — Page 59

CONFIDENTIAL

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WE

REAPPRAISAL BY VIETNAM OF ITS POLICY TOWARDS THE REGION AS A

WHOLE, AND IN PARTICULAR THE ASEAN COUNTRIES. IT IS JUST POSSIBLE THAT THE VIETNAMESE MAY SEE THE ACHIEVEMENT OF A

SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM AS A NECESSARY STEP IN THE PROCESS OF VIETNAM'S INTERNATIONAL REHABILITATION. HOWEVER, WE ARE MUCH

MORE INCLINED TO SEE THE MOVE AS A SHORT-TERM TACTICAL ONE.

SUSPECT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TO USE THE TALKS AS A MEANS OF

FOCUSSING INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION ON VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC

PREDICAMENT AND ON THE NEED FOR LARGE-SCALE ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE.

THEY WILL NO DOUBT WANT TO PORTRAY THEIR DECLARED READINESS TO DISCUSS THE PROBLEM AS A SIGN OF FLEXIBILITY, WITH A VIEW TO IMPROVING VIETNAM'S INTERNATIONAL IMAGE. (BY THE SAME TOKEN, THEY WILL WANT TO SHIFT RESPONSBILITY FOR DIFFICULTIES IN THE

TALKS ONTO OUR SIDE.) THEY MAY BELIEVE THAT THEY CAN USE THE BOAT

PEOPLE ISSUE AS A LEVER WITH WHICH TO EXERT PRESSURE ON US TO

MAKE CONCESSIONS ON AID, IN ADVANCE OF A SATISFACTORY SETTLEMENT

OF THE CAMBODIA ISSUE.

AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, THERE WILL CLEARLY BE A NEED FOR SOME TOUGH TALKING IN THE INITIAL ROUND. WE WOULD ENVISAGE A

FIRM OPENING STATEMENT BY OUR SIDE, AIMED AT PUTTING THE WHOLE PROBLEM IN THE CONTEXT OF VIETNAM'S FUNDAMENTAL RESPONSIBILITIES

TOWARDS ITS OWN CITIZENS. WE WOULD EMPHASISE THAT THERE IS NOW

NO ALTERNATIVE TO REPATRIATION OF NON-REFUGEES AND THAT THE

PRIORITY TASK IS TO AGREE SUITABLE ARRANGEMENTS FOR THIS TO

HAPPEN.

5. WE SUGGEST THAT AT THIS POINT THE HONG KONG MEMBERS COULD

GIVE A DETAILED FACTUAL ACCOUNT OF THE NATURE OF THE

PROBLEM AS PERCEIVED IN HONG KONG. THIS WOULD INCLUDE DATA ON NUMBERS, THE POINTS OF ORIGIN OF RECENT ARRIVALS AND THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THEIR DEPARTURE. THE AIM WOULD BE TO

DEMONSTRATE THAT MOST DEPARTURES ARE FROM A LIMITED NUMBER OF

SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN VIETNAM. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPLY EVIDENCE

THAT THESE ARE TAKING PLACE WITH THE CONNIVANCE OF THE LOCAL

AUTHORITIES. DISCUSSION COULD THEN LEAD ON TO SPECIFIC WAYS OF

STOPPING THE FLOW, INCLUDING THE PATROLLING ON LAND OR SEA OF THE POINTS WHERE DEPARTURES ARE MOST FREQUENT, AS WELL AS RADIO BROADCASTS AND PERHAPS DIRECTIVES FROM THE CENTRE.

TO REMIND THE VIETNAMESE THAT THE ORDERLY DEPARTURE

EXISTS AS A CHANNEL FOR LEGAL DEPARTURES.

6

WE WOULD WANT

PROGRAMME

OF A FUTURE

DISCUSSIONS COULD THEN TURN TO THE PRACTICALITIES

REPATRIATION PROGRAMME. THIS WOULD COVER SUCH ASPECTS AS THE

ROUTES AND MEANS BY WHICH THEY SHOULD BE RETURNED (ON WHICH WE

ARE GRATEFUL FOR THE WORK YOU HAVE PUT IN HAND): THE NATURE OF

PUBLIC ASSURANCES THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED FROM THE VIETNAMESE

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CONFIDENTIAL