CONFIDENTIAL
134656 MDHOAN 4775
4.
SIGNIFICANTLY DETRACT FROM THE GOOD WILL TOWARDS HONG
KONG (THOULGH NOT NECESSARILY TOWARDS THE HKG'S AND HMG'S POLICIES) WHICH MOST MPS CURRENTLY FEEL.
BUT
FOR ALL THESE REASONS WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE, AS EXPLAINED IN OUR TELNO 984, THAT THE OPTION WHICH HAS SCREENING AS ITS CENTRAL FEATURE WOULD BE THE RIGHT APPROACH. IT WOULD BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LEGAL AND HUMANITARIAN OBLIGATIONS WHIC WE BOTH ACKNOWLEDGE. IT WOULD ALSO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEW INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS WHICH, IN THE LIGHT OF THE RECENT ICG MEETING, WE BELIEVE NOW TO BE SLOWLY EMERGING. IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT ENOUGH TO SECURE THE ACQUIESCENCE OF THE MAJOR RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES (NOTABLY THE US) IN SUCH A POLICY, WITH CAREFUL PRESENTATION, IT SHOULD JUST BE POSSIBLE. 5.
BY CONTRAST, THE APPROACH YOU NOW ADVOCATE WOULD IN OUR VIEW STAND NO CHANCE OF INTERNATIONAL ACCEPTANCE. WE WOULD IN EFFECT BE INVITING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO WASH ITS HANDS OF HONG KONG REFUGEES. THAT WOULD ENTAIL MAJOR LONG TERM RISKS. YOU WOULD BE LEFT WITH THE PROBLEM OF HOW TO DEAL WITH THE RESIDUAL REFUGEE POPULATION IN HONG KONG (MANY OF WHOM WOULD RESIST THE IDEA OF RESETTLEMENT INTO HONG KONG SOCIETY). MOREOVER IF THE NEW POLICY FAILED BECAUSE ARRIVALS FROM VIETNAM CONTINUED UNDETERRED AND THE VIETNAMESE STEADFASTLY REFUSED TO TAKE THEM BACK, YOU WOULD IN EFFECT HAVE BURNT YOUR BOATS. IF INTERNATIONAL OPINION HAD BEEN ALIENATED TO THE POINT WHERE NO FURTHER ASSISTANCE WAS FORTHCOMING, YOU COULD BE LEFT WITH A GROWING POPULATION OF DETAINED ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, WITH NO PROSPECT OF EITHER RESETTLEMENT OR (EXCEPT IN THE VERY LONG TERM) OF REPATRIATION. THE LIKELY SIZE
•
OF THIS POPULATION IS FRANKLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT: IF THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF YOUR PROPOSED POLICY PROVED LESS THAN EXPECTED, THE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE LARGE AND OPEN-ENDED.
6.
WE SHOULD BE GRATEFUL FOR YOUR FURTHER COMMENTS ON THE POINTS SET OUT ABOVE. WE HAVE NOT YET SUBMITTED YOUR IDEAS TO MINISTERS. WHEN WE DO SO, WE SHALL FEEL BOUND TO DRAW TO THEIR ATTENTION THE SERIOUS DIFFICULTIES WHICH WE PERCEIVE IN THEM.
HOWE
YYYY
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