TNAG-1787-FCO40-2547-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-general-1988 — Page 142

CONFIDENTIAL

Mr Marshall referred to the recent seizure in Sydney of an arms shipment destined for Fiji. It looked increasingly as though it was destined for extremist supporters of the Indian coalition. There was evidence that an earlier shipment had got through, and that a third shipment was at present at sea destined for Fiji via Auckland and Singapore. It was very worrying. Meanwhile, Ratu Mara seemed to have moments of optimism and pessimism. The Secretary of State commented that the economic situation was not too bad, but that the constitutional problems were more difficult. On the latter, we should not let the best be the enemy of the good. Mr Marshall said that it would be naive to hope for a constitution which gave equality to the two races, but anything less would cause difficulties with the Indians. Bavandra seemed to think that he would regain power whatever the constitution because of increased Fijian support.

Mr Marshall said that he was worried about the situation in Vanuatu. He had been in close contact with Lini over the last month. The latter had been under challenge from his own supporters, and there had been quite serious demonstrations. There was some evidence of a Libyan-trained cadre of up to 20 people being involved. Lini had asked for police and military help from both New Zealand and Australia. It had not in the event proved necessary. But the Australians and New Zealanders had secured agreement from Papua New Guinea and Samoa to intervene alongside them should it become necessary.

Mr Marshall said that the change of government in France. was likely to help on New Caledonia. On the Rainbow Warrior, he had told Dumas that New Zealand did not expect a quick resolution, but the situation was difficult for them. The Secretary of State said that we remained benevolent spectators.

The Secretary of State briefed Mr Marshall on our view of developments in South Africa. We believed our general view was getting through to the Africans quite well. The Nigerians were doing reasonably well in tackling some difficult economic problems. Mr Marshall said that he had heard rumours that Babangida might not last. He commented that Boesak would be coming to Harare to see him. There had been a SADDC delegation in New Zealand a few weeks before. The New Zealanders were entirely with us on Mozambique and the Commonwealth was grateful for our leadership. He would be seeing the ANC in Lusaka.

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(A C Galsworthy)

8 June 1988

CC:

PS/Mrs Chalker

PS/Lord Glenarthur

Mr Gillmore

Mr Braithwaite

Mr McLaren

Mr Kerr ERD

Mr Fergusson

ECD (E)

WED

SAfD

WAD

HKD

SEAD