TNAG-1748-FCO40-2467-Visit-by-Sir-Geoffrey-Howe--Secretary-of-State-for-Foreign-a-1988 — Page 28

CONFIDENTIAL

047733

MDHIAN 0719

INTERNAL POLITICS

7.

IN THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL, THE SHARP DIVISIONS OVER CONSTITUT- IONAL REFORM WHICH COLOURED ATTITUDES TO NEARLY EVERY OTHER ISSUE IN

1987 HAVE SUBSIDED. THERE HAS BEEN A DRIFT BACK TO CONSENSUS POLITICS AND MR. MARTIN LEE'S (QUOTE) FACTION (UNQUOTE) HAS BEEN LESS

VOCIFEROUS. WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE VIETNAMESE REFUGGE PROBLEM, MEMBERS' PREOCCUPATIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY DOMESTIC. LEGCO WILL DEBATE THE BASIC LAW ON 13/14 JULY. PRESENT SIGNS ARE THAT THE

ISSUE WILL BE HANDLED RESPONSIBLY IN PROCEDURAL TERMS: BUT THERE ARE

BOUND TO BE MANY CRITICAL COMMENTS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE RADICALS.

8.

IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THE FINANCE COMMITTEE WILL RESPOND TO

THE NEW DEFENCE COSTS AGREEMENT. BOTH LEGCO AND THE COMMUNITY AT

LARGE WILL TEND TO REACT SCEPTICALLY TO THE AGREEMENT AND USE IT TO

JUDGE THE EXTENT OF HMG'S COMMITMENT TO HONG KONG. THE SAME IS TRUE

ON ANY ISSUE INVOLVING HMG. ANYTHING TO DO WITH BRITISH PASSPORTS

(BN(O) OR BDTC) IS ANOTHER PARTICULARLY NEURALGIC AREA.

THE 1997 FACTOR

9.

DESPITE GENERAL SATISFACTION WITH THE PRESENT STATE OF AFFAIRS

IN THE TERRITORY, THERE ARE MANY INDICATIONS OF WIDESPREAD UNDERLYING DISQUIET ABOUT LONGER TERM PROSPECTS. THIS BOILS DOWN TO MISTRUST

OF CHINA. THE MOST COMMON WORRIES RELATE TO POSSIBLE INTERFERENCE BY

CHINA: FEAR FOR THE RULE OF LAW: MAINTENANCE OF STANDARDS: THE

CAPRICIOUSNESS OF CHINESE CADRES: AND THE INSTABILITY OF CHINESE POLITICS. MANY PEOPLE ALSO WORRY ABOUT CHINESE ABILITY TO MAINTAIN

ADEQUATE OPERATING STANDARDS AND SAFETY MEASURES AT THE DAYA BAY

NUCLEAR POWER STATION.

·

10. IT IS THE MIDDLE CLASS AND PROFESSIONALS WHO TEND TO FEEL GREATEST DISQUIET OVER 1997. SOME, A MINORITY, MAKE THEIR VIEWS KNOWN PUBLICLY MARTIN LEE IS THE MOST PROMINENT EXAMPLE. HE HAS ACQUIRED CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT AMONG THE MIDDLE CLASS, ESPECIALLY THE YOUNG, FOR VOICING THEIR FEARS AND CHALLENGING THE GOVERNMENT. BUT HE DOES NOT REFLECT THE OPINION OF THE COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE TO THE

EXTENT SUGGESTED BY THE OVERSEAS MEDIA. THE GENERAL PUBLIC IN HONG

KONG CONTINUES TO OBHOR POLITICAL CONFLICT AND REMAINS GENERALLY

APATHETIC TO THE DETAIL OF POLITICAL ARGUMENT.

11. DOMESTIC ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE ONES THAT AROUSE MOST DAY-TO -DAY PUBLIC COMMENT. THE REACTION TO THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT THAT

PAGE 3 CONFIDENTIAL