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The way ahead
23. We have come a long way in a short time. But we have a great deal further to go. By the end of this year the eventual shape of the Basic Law will be fairly clear. In 1990 it will be passed by the National People's Congress. Between then and 1997 we shall almost certainly wish to introduce a system of electing the legislature that will mirror the one which will be in place post-1997. The people of Hong Kong will thus have time to get used to the new system and the new institutions of government will be given a chance to develop enough strength to withstand the shock of the transfer of sovereignty and the end of British administration. It will not be easy. Elections, direct or indirect, will not of themselves produce a better system of government, despite the rosy picture painted by their advocates. Nor, I trust, will they prove to be as destructive of Hong Kong's stability as some of their critics fear. But, whatever the attitude of the various partisan groups, substantial changes must be made in our system of government over the next nine years. To make this process benefit Hong Kong will require sustained and imaginative effort.
24.
We would do well to remember that the "difficulties and dangers" identified by Sir Alexander Grantham nearly three decades ago, and referred to in a separate despatch, are as relevant today as they ever were. Hong Kong cannot become independent. That puts an important limit on the extent to which it can give rein to political aspirations. The great majority of people in Hong Kong still remain uninvolved in the political debate, either through apathy or cynicism. This means that too much political influence may go by default to small, vocal minorities, or organised factions such as the communists and the nationalists (the Kuomintang, which is by no means as formidable a force as the Communist Party, was nevertheless actively campaigning in favour of direct elections during the 1987 review and competes, covertly, in District Board elections).
25. We need to devote attention not just to the future composition of the legislature but to the more complex issue of its relationship to the executive and how government business will be conducted in it. China has shown itself intensely suspicious both of political parties and of the ministerial system they create. There is no great enthusiasm in Hong Kong for either. China has also shown itself in favour of a strong executive. So are many people in Hong Kong, particularly among the business community. But little thought has been given in China, or by the public in Hong Kong, to how an executive is to be strong and effective without a party system to produce discipline
SECRET
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