TNAG-1711-FCO40-2389-Future-British-Consulate-General-in-Hong-Kong-HMS-Tamar-1987 — Page 26

CONFIDENTIAL

participation in government. Deng recently said that a

"tentative" plan for political reform would be prepared

for the Party Congress in the autumn. There are already

moves to strengthen the legal system but nothing that

suggests that the Communist Party contemplates allowing a

modification of its leading role in society.

5.

If Deng dies before the succession arrangements are

fully in place a radical change of direction is unlikely,

but a more cautious approach to reforms and to the

outside world is probable. The armed forces could seek

to reassert themselves. The older ones are steeped in

traditions of the Chinese revolution which modernisation

sometimes seems to ignore, and they may resent the

reduction of their personal and institutional influence.

(Every mother's dream used to be to have a son in the

People's Liberation Army: now it is probably to send him

to a US business school). In a confused interregnum, the

military could emerge as a coherent power group. There

are no generals in direct contention but army influence

could swing behind the more conservative candidates for

the top posts.

6.

Permanent social and economic improvements will

depend on the successful control of population growth.

There is strong resistance, particularly in rural areas,

FC6AAI

CONFIDENTIAL