TNAG-1709-FCO40-2384-Hong-Kong-narcotics-offences-and-drug-trafficking-1988 — Page 47

SOUTHWEST ASIA

-38-

AFGHANISTAN

Summary:

The Kabul regime's lack of commitment to control of narcotics production, consumption and

and trafficking remains unchanged. While the regime's statistics are considered unreliable, unofficial data from regime sources indicate a decline in seizures in the March-July 1987 period. Opium production in 1987 appears to be increasing, reflecting the absence of official efforts to limit production; regime encouragement of production in some areas; destruction of the economic infrastructure which drives many farmers to opium cultivation as a low-labor-investment, high-cash-yield product; strong demand for the crop; and the unsanctioned toleration of opium production by individual elements of the Afghan resistance. Heroin production, particularly in Kabul, appears to be expanding. Cooperation with international narcotics control efforts is minimal. End Summary.

for

The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan's (DRA) commitment to combatting narcotics production and trafficking is weak to non-existent. U.N. officials privately have noted that U.N. provision of vehicles and

and sensitive monitoring equipment enhancing official

official interdiction efforts has not

not achieved notable result. There is a strong possibility that equipment has been diverted to military use. Unconfirmed reports of senior officials' involvement in narcotics sales continue.

any

the

Regime-generated narcotics statistics are regarded by the U.N. and other observers as unreliable, reflecting a lack of DRA interest in the area as well as an inability to collect data. Unofficial regime statistics for the March-July 1987 period dealing strictly with seizures indicate that seizures in 1987 thus far are at or below levels for 1986 in most categories. In the March-July period, opium seizures are only 28 percent of the 1986 levels (even though the period measured follows the peak harvest season); heroin is at 21 percent of 1986 levels; hashish is at 10 percent. Inexplicably (possibly suggesting erroneous data) seizure of mandrax tablets by mid-July was already at 86 percent of the 1986 total for the entire year and opium seed seizures are up more than 22 times.

Relatively good precipitation in the

and

principal opium production regions during the winter

spring spring of 1987 apparently ensured a continuation of the trend toward expanded production of Afghan opium. It is likely that 1987 production will be at least as high as estimates for 1986 production of 400-500 MT (an increase from estimated 1984 levels of 140-180 MT). Factors accounting for continued production at this level include: