TNAG-1662-FCO40-2310-Hong-Kong-Western-Harbour-Lantau-Strategic-Development-proje-1987 — Page 3

imposed on

unavoidable demand management foreign carriers may lead to retaliation against Hong Kong's airlines by the countries in which those carriers are based.

Current and Future Capacity at Kai Tak

5

From 1983 to 1985 inclusive, aircraft movements passengers and freight grew by about 10%,

11.5% and 17% respectively. These growth rates are somewhat below current projections which assume an average annual growth rate of 6% for aircraft movements, 6% for passengers and 8.5% for freight into the mid-1990s. Current projections of operational demands upon Kai Tak indicate that, even if the present hours of operation can be maintained

6

(a) by the mid-1990s, the use of the runway will be at maximum for three or four hours per day;

(b) until the early 2005, it may be possible to cope with traffic growth by demand management (e.g. re-scheduling of services);

(c)

and

thereafter. more severe re-scheduling would be required.

It is worth noting however that a substantial surge in traffic took place in 1986. A comparison with 1985 shows that aircraft movements have grown by 8.5%, passengers 7.7% and freight 24.7% in 1986. If the present trend is more than a short term peaking, then projections of traffic growth will have to be revised upwards and the constraints on the operation of Kai Tak will materialize sooner than currently envisaged.

The steps being taken to extend the life of Kai Tak

7

Various civil works projects at Kai Tak are now under way or under consideration. These are designed to increase capacity in line with the projected demand (paragraph 5). The Stage V passenger terminal extension project will increase the design capacity of the terminal building from 3,400 passengers per hour in each direction (arrivals and departures) to 5,300 per hour when it is completed in the latter half of 1988. This hourly capacity is designed to match the rate at which aircraft will generate passenger flows when the single runway is utilised at

at its assessed capacity of 30 movements

per hour. The ultimate annual capacity of Kai Tak depends upon the extent to which aircraft movements can be directed into off-peak hours by demand management (re-scheduling).

CONFIDENTIAL