TNAG-1658-FCO40-2306-Daya-Bay-nuclear-power-station-project-safety-concerns-in-Ho-1987 — Page 231

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is certainly not because of low energy demand in the developing world.

Countries like India have shown how a policy of electrification can

support industrial development. The expected total electric generating

capacity additions in the developing countries from now until 2000 are

between 520 and 730 GW (e) that is to say, in exactly the same range as

for the OECD countries.

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Still, the share of nuclear capacity additions

is likely to be much smaller in the developing countries. The reasons

have recently been discussed in the IAEA by a senior expert group on the

promotion and financing of nuclear power programmes in developing

countries. One conclusion was that financing is certainly an important

constraint, as developing countries often have weak economies.

Another

not surprising conclusion was that nuclear powe: s extreme Ly

exacting as regards infrastructure -- particularly the availability of

qualified manpower, but also decision-making machinery, planning and

industrial support, etc. These elements need to be in place, and IAFA

support was considered essential to achieving this.

In many developing countries interest in the nuclear power option

as one of the few available paths to expanded electricity production is

coupled with hesitation. A major question seems to be whether the very

high capital investments can be justified in the present economic

climate, but there is, in addition, a feeling of some uncertainty about

the future of the nuclear option not surprising in view of the diverse

attitudes of industrial States.

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Before Chernobyl, the nuclear industry had a uniquely excellent

safety record. In Chernobyl, some thirty people

--

mostly firefighters