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A primary factor will be the demand for electricity.
This has
fallen off from the 6-7% increase per year which seemed to be almost a
law of nature in the industrialized countries before 1973 to the present
2-3% per year.
Since the oil shocks of the 1970s, the structure of
energy demand has changed. There is a lower demand for oil, while the
demand for electric energy is increasing in parallel with the growth of
the gross national product in industrialized countries. We can foresee a
continued need for more electric energy and more generating capacity to
meet the demands of growing economies in both industrialized and
developing countries.
the early 1970s, following old energy demand forecasts, is now a thing of
the past in many countries and the reserve capacities are becoming
uncomfortably low. Although the professionals have a poor record in
forecasting future electricity needs and the future role of nuclear
power, I would not be surprised if for the first time we will one
day have to revise our nuclear forecasts for the early 2000s in an upward
direction.
The over-ordering of plants which took place in
Some will not agree with this prediction: The Brundtland
inviled by ice whit ( Nei cas Commission on Environment and Development, like many environmentalist
groups, calls for conservation and the use of renewable energy sources.
Conservation measures have already proved important in reducing the
consumption of primary energy, but what many environmentalists do not
seem to have understood is how important electricity has been in
achieving these savings through the higher efficiency it offers the end
user. Primary energy has been saved, yes, but the shift to electricity
played an important role in that process and that electricity has to
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