TNAG-1641-FCO40-2288-Budget-of-Hong-Kong-1987 — Page 170

4.2.87

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20

38.

First, let me stress the importance of the

economic growth rate assumption in the Forecast and

accordingly in our planning. The previous medium range

assumption of an average annual growth in GDP of 4 1/2% was arrived at when preparing the 1986-87 budget after

aking into account past trends and prospects at that

ime. The trend growth rate of the economy had clearly

been falling (11). The average annual growth rate over

the five-year period ending 1980 was 12.3%.

five-year trend growth rate fell steadily every year

thereafter and was expected to be around 4.8% for the

five-year period ending 1986. But in the light of the

This

(11)

Average annual growth rate in real terms of the GDP

TET

Five years ending

1980

12.3

1981

10.8

1982

8.9

1983

8.3

1984

7.9

1985

5.8

1986 (based on the 1986 GDP

forecast made in the 1986-87 budget speech)

4.8

1986 (based on the preliminary

estimate of GDP for 1986)

1987 (based on the present 1987

GDP forecast)

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[5.6]

[6.0]