TNAG-1638-FCO40-2282-Future-of-Hong-Kong-withdrawal-of-the-British-garrison-1987 — Page 78

LOCSEN

SECRET UK EYES A

It has control of the Territory by military force at any time. sufficient forces readily available to isolate Hong Kong by land, sea and air. Alternatively, the PRC could exert economic and military pressure short of intervention to make government in Hong Kong difficult or impossible. However, it is currently assessed as inconceivable that the PRC would intervene in Hong Kong, except in response to a serious breakdown of law and order in the Territory.

17. In the event of any serious unrest in Hong Kong prior to For 1997 the PRCG would expect HMG to control the situation. this reason we believe the PRCG might object to a reduction of the British garrison if they considered this detracted from our

Moreover, ability to meet what they see as our responsibilities.

The PRCG have

PROG public publicly

stated

if the HKG, supported by the garrison, was unable to control unrest quickly it is unlikely that the PRC would object to temporary British military reinforcement. Nonetheless, if violence was prolonged and in particular attributable even partly to the transfer of sovereignty, People's Liberation Army (PLA) intervention is considered a real possibility. statements that serious disturbances could prompt them to move into Hong Kong before 1997 have been confirmed by intelligenee- BOURCES, However, the detrimental effect that such intervention would have on China's national prestige, the economy and population in Hong Kong and on prospects for a negotiated settlement with Taiwan will be well appreciated by the PRCG.

INTERNAL THREAT

18.

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Recent history has shown that small incidents in Hong Kong can flare up quickly, particularly if connected to popular grievances real, imagined or inspired. The pattern has been one of civil disturbance in urban areas requiring prompt police action, protection of key points and reserve support for police riot squads. Potential sources of civil unrest in HK include the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Kuomintang (KMT), Triad Societies, Political Pressure Groups and spontaneous outbreaks of unrest arising from comparatively minor political, social or economic factors or developments. The CCP represents the main

5

UK EYES A

SECRET