TNAG-1638-FCO40-2282-Future-of-Hong-Kong-withdrawal-of-the-British-garrison-1987 — Page 33

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either in Hong Kong or elsewhere

stages of the run up to 1997.

J

particularly in the latter

Ideally the time between key

events in the plan (ie the withdrawal of infantry battalions)

should be sufficiently long to enable such re-adjustment to be

made without necessarily affecting the whole plan. The most

sensible way to proceed therefore is to plan on conducting a

phased withdrawal, noting however that ultimately the degree

of flexibility will be constrained by the consequential plans

for the Gurkha battalions and the UK battalion.

THE OUTLINE WITHDRAWAL PLAN

44. It is evident that the key to the withdrawal plan must be

its flexibility. It should therefore be reviewed frequently.

In principle, the garrison rundown has to be geared to the

successful achievement of events in the RHKP expansion plan, and

not to a rigid timetable.

45. The withdrawal of battalions provides the framework for the

military plan. All other events, including the rundown of RN

and RAF resources, are related to this. On current RHKP plans

the first battalion could not be withdrawn before 1992 (ie

after handing over half the border commitment). A further

(second) battalion could be withdrawn when the RHKP has assumed

all the military border and IS tasks for planning purposes

this would not be before 1994. Two battalions would thus

remain. (However, if an extension of the Brunei battalion beyond

1993 was not forthcoming, the timing of the withdrawal of the second battalion from Hong Kong might be affected). The remaining

garrison force, whatever its size, would be rundown over the period between the assumption of the garrison's tasks (planned

date 1994) and the date of the final handover (30 Jun 97);

withdrawals would be authorised in the light of the state of

stability and security pertaining in Hong Kong

be closely monitored during the final phase.

which would

46. The outline withdrawal plan is indicated diagrammatically at

Annex C. It falls into three natural phases:

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COS S/184 (2)

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