TNAG-1638-FCO40-2282-Future-of-Hong-Kong-withdrawal-of-the-British-garrison-1987 — Page 142

MANPOWER

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UK EYES A

APPENDIX 3 TO ANNEX I TO ATTACHMENT TO COS 7/87

1. An attempt to forecast manpower reductions at this stage could produce misleading results, but it is possible to obtain a very broad idea of how the options considered would affect total numbers. There is potential for the following reductions:

a. Army. From nearly 8000 (including LEYS of the HKMSC) in 1987, the Army manpower establishment would reduce by about two thirds on reduction to two resident battalions, and further major reductions would take place on reducing to a single battalion group. Clearly Gurkha numbers will decline markedly from the 1987 level as battalions are withdrawn.

b. RN. The current RN strength of 675 would reduce by some 50 on withdrawal of 3 ASRM and by a further 120 if the numbers of PC were reduced from 5 to 3 and ferry services partially contractorised. It would then stabilize at around 500 until the PC were finally withdrawn, with approximately 300 of these being LEPS (compared to 400 in 1986). Demise of the PC and contractorisation of ferry services would provide savings in the Maintenance Groups and the infrastructure based on HMS TAMAR.

C.

ure

RAF. RAF strength will be affected by decisions to reduce the numbers of Wessex and to reduce monthly flying hours, and by any decisions taken involving those personnel serving in joint units within the garrison. In very general terms, a reduction from 8 to Wessex in 1989 would reduce the RAF uniformed establishment by approximately 40 (from its current level

COS S/173 (1)

13 - 1 UK EYES A

SECRET LOCSEN