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CONFIDENTIAL
060635 MDHIAN 2820
UNDERSTANDING AND INTEREST IN A DOCUMENT WHICH IS REGARDED AS TOO COMPLEX AND A SUBJECT WHICH IS TOO CONTROVERSIAL. THE GENERAL REACTION OF THE ARTICULATE PUBLIC APPEARS TO BE STRONGLY IN FAVOUR OF SOME ELEMENT OF DIRECT ELECTIONS BUT WITH VIEWS DIVIDED ON TIMING.
10. INTEREST IN EMIGRATION IS WIDESPREAD AND IS COMMONLY SEEN AS REFLECTING LONGER-TERM ANXIETIES. ONE RECENT THEME IS THAT PEOPLE WISH TO LEAVE FOR THEIR CHILDREN'S SAKE. BUT THE ''PULL' FACTOR IS ALSO AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION. RECIPIENT COUNTRIES, NOTABLY CANADA, HAVE INCREASED THEIR OFF-TAKE. LOCAL FORECASTS BY THE CANADIANS, AMERICANS AND AUSTRALIANS INDICATE THAT THE TOTALS FOR 1987 AND 1988 COULD BE OVER 30,000, OR ABOUT 50 PERCENT MORE THAN THE AVERAGE FOR THE PAST FEW YEARS.
11. THE CONTROVERSIES LAST SUMMER OVER THE DAYA BAY NUCLEAR POWER PLANT AND EARLIER THIS YEAR ON THE PUBLIC ORDER ORDINANCE HAVE BEEN PORTRAYED IN THE MEDIA AS DEMONSTRATING THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS ALOOF AND INSENSITIVE TO PUBLIC OPINION. YET THE MOST RECENT GOVERNMENT TELEPHONE SURVEY (JUNE) SHOWED THAT 47 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS (THE SECOND HIGHEST FIGURE ON RECORD) CONSIDERED GOVERNMENT'S OVERALL PERFORMANCE TO BE GOOD.
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12. PSYCHOLOGICALLY, PEOPLE FEAR THAT BRITAIN'S WITHDRAWAL HONG KONG WILL CREATE A VACUUM INTO WHICH CHINA WILL INEVITABLY BE SUCKED. THERE IS A TENDANCY TO CRITICISE HMG FOR NOT ''DOING ENOUGH TO HELP HONG KONG. RECENTLY THIS HAS FOCUSSED ON RESETTLEMENT OF VIETNAMESE REFUGEES AND THE BNCO) PASSPORT ISSUE. THE THAI CONSUL-GENERAL'S REPORTED HESITANCY ABOUT THE BN (O) PASSPORT DID NOT HELP: IT PRODUCED A MARKED SWING IN PREFERENCE BACK TO THE BDTC PASSPORT WHICH HAS NOT YET BEEN REVISED DESPITE CLARIFICATION OF THE THAI ATTITUDE IN BN (0)S. THE SUDDEN INFLUX OF VIETNAMESE SETTLED IN CHINA ADDED GREATLY TO THESE CONCERNS AT THE TIME BUT IS NOW SEEN AS A PROBLEM WELL SETTLED.
CONCLUSIONS
13.
HONG KONG'S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IS EXCELLENT. POLITICALLY, HOWEVER, PEOPLE ARE NERVOUS. CHINA IS STILL REGARDED WITH SUSPICION. THE MEDIA IS NOW HABITUALLY MORE CRITICAL OF GOVERNMENT THAN WAS TRADITIONALLY THE CASE IN HONG KONG, THUS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF A GOVERNMENT MORE BELEAGURED THAT IT ACTUALLY IS. THE REALITY IS THAT THE GOVERNMENT PRESIDES OVER A DYNAMIC ECONOMY AND HAS A NUMBER OF AMBITIOUS AND FAR-SIGHTED LONG-TERM PROGRAMMES. OVERALL HONG KONG IS DOING WELL BUT FEELS EXPOSED.
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