CONFIDENTIAL
013363
MDLIAN 1205
COME TO THE
7. THESE WERE THE WORST DISTURBANCES IN TIB ET WHICH HAVE
THEY NOW APPEAR TO BE NOTICE OF THE OUTSIDE WORLD FOR MANY YEARS. UNDER CONTROL, BUT HAVE SHOWN THAT CHINESE RULE IS STILL FIERCELY RESENTED BY MANY TIBETANS AND THAT THE IRON FIST OF THE CHINESE SECURITY FORCES STILL LURKS WITHIN THE VELVET GLOVE OF PEKING'S MORE
AS FAR AS TIBET IS LIB ERAL POLICIES OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. CONCERNED, IF THERE ARE NO FURTHER DISTURBANCES, SECURITY WILL BE TIGHTENED UP BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE OTHER MORE POSITIVE
ASPECTS
THE CHINESE HAVE
OF CENTRAL POLICY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY REVISED. INVESTED TOO MUCH, IN TERMS OF THEIR INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION, IN THEM FOR THAT. BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY BE WARY OF ANY FURTHER RELAXATION.
8. COMMUNICATION BY THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES WITH THE DALAI LAMA IS VIRTUALLY RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS. TENTATIVE CONTACTS
THERE IS CLEARLY NOW VERY SINCE 1980 OR SO HAD NOT LED VERY FAR. LITTLE COMMON GROUND AND NO INCENTIVE FOR EITHER SIDE TO ALTER ITS ENTRENCHED POSITION.
9. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON THE PARTY CONGRESS. IT IS TRUE THAT THEY PROVIDE AMMUNITION FOR BUT THEY WERE SWIFTLY CRITICS OF THE MORE OPEN POLICIES GENERALLY. CONTAINED: AND IN ANY CASE THEIR NATURE WAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT
DEMONSTRATING STUDENTS FROM THE STUDENT DEMONSTRATIONS LAST YEAR.
AND THE REACTION STRIKE MUCH MORE CLOSELY AT THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM IS CORRESPONDINGLY GREATER. THAT SAID, THESE EVENTS MAY WELL PROVE YET ANOTHER NAIL IN THE COFFIN OF FORMER GENERAL SECRETARY HU YA OB ANG, WHO WAS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ORIGINAL LIBERAL POLICIES TOWARDS TIBET.
10.
TIB ET IS BOUND TO BE AN IRRITANT (AT THE LEAST) IN SINO-US RELATIONS FOR SOME TIME. BUT NEITHER THE CHINESE NOR THE AMERICANS CAN DERIVE ADVANTAGE FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF IT, AND AS SEEN FROM PEKING IT IS UNLIKELY TO BLOW THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS RIGHT OFF
COURSE.
EVANS
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CONFIDENTIAL
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