RESTRICTED
013706
MDHIAN 0684
LIBERALS WILL NOT GET MUCH OF WHAT THEY WANTED IN TERMS OF EXTENDING DEMOCRACY. POLITICAL REFORM WILL BE MORE LIMITED, DESIGNED LARGELY
ΤΟ
CONSOLIDATE AND RATIONALISE THE OPERATION OF THE PRESENT SYSTEM, AND THUS BE MORE PALATABLE TO THE BUREAUCRATS. KEY ELEMENTS WILL INCLUDE THE CLEARER DEFINITION AND SEPARATION OF PARTY AND GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONS: STRENGTHENING THE LEGAL SYSTEM: AND THE INTRODUCTION OF CHECKS FROM BELOW AS WELL AS ABOVE ON THE WAYS
OFFICIALS OPERATE.
AS FAR AS THE POST-CONGRESS LEADERSHIP IS CONCERNED, IT IS NOW CERTAIN THAT ZHAO ZIYANG WILL BE CONFIRMED AS GENERAL-SECRETARY. DENG XIAOPING WILL LEAVE THE POLITBURO STANDING COMMITTEE AND WILL TAKE WITH HIM ALL THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THAT BODY EXCEPT FOR ZHAO. HE WILL HOWEVER RETAIN A PLACE IN THE TOP ECHELON OF THE PARTY THROUGH HIS CHAIRMANSHIP OF THE MILITARY COMMISSION. THIS WILL LEAVE ROOM FOR THE ELECTION OF SOME YOUNGER LEADERS TO THE TOP PARTY POSITIONS, WHICH SHOULD ACT GENERALLY TO THE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE IN FAVOUR OF REFORM. BUT IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHO WILL DOMINATE THE
POST-DENG LEADERSHIP.
8.
THE PARTY CONGRESS DOES NOT FORMALLY DECIDE ON GOVERNMENT APPOINTMENTS. IT NEED NOT THEREFORE ANNOUNCE WHO WILL TAKE OVER FROM ZHAO ZIYANG A PREMIER. BUT THE NEW PARTY LINE-UP WILL NO DOUBT PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL CLUES. LI PENG IS STILL VERY MUCH THE FRONT-RUNNER FOR THE POST, THOUGH SOMEONE LIKE WANG LI MIGHT STAND IN TEMPORARILY UNTIL THE NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS MEETS NEXT SPRING TO DECIDE ON GOVERNMENT APPOINTMENTS.
9.
IN EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, THE CONGRESS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONFIRM THAT THE POLICY OF 'OPENING'' TO THE OUTSIDE WORLD SHOULD CONTINUE, AS WELL AS ENDORSING THE OTHER MAIN LINES OF CHINA'S CURRENT FOREIGN POLICY. BUT ALL OUR SOURCES SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGHOUT THE CONGRESS WILL BE ON DOMESTIC STRATEGY AND THE INSTALLATION OF A
NEW LEADERSHIP TEAM.
EVANS
YYYY
3
PAGE RESTRICTED
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.