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HkB ozoli
013706 MDHIAN 0684
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FM PEKING
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 1750
OF 1308OOZ OCTOBER 1987
INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG, WASHINGTON, MOSCOW, TOKYO, UKDEL NATO
INFO SAVING SHANGHAI
CHINA: 13TH PARTY CONGRESS
SUMMARY
1.
THE 13TH CONGRESS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY, DUE TO OPEN ON 25 OCTOBER, WILL SET THE FRAMEWORK AND TONE FOR CHINESE
POLICY-MAKING FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS. IT LOOKS AS IF THE PRESENT GENERAL ORIENTATION WILL BE ENDORSED, AS A RESULT OF LONG DISCUSSION DURING MEETINGS OF THE LEADERSHIP IN THE SUMMER. ECONOMIC REFORM WILL BE FURTHER DEVELOPED AND TENTATIVE STEPS WILL BE ANNOUNCED FOR
POLITICAL REFORM. ZHAO ZIYANG WILL BE CONFIRMED AS GENERAL-SECRETARY AND DENG XIAOPING, LI XIANNIAN, CHEN YUN AND HU YAOBANG WILL SUBSEQUENTLY RETIRE FROM THE POLITBURO STANDING COMMITTEE. DENG WILL STILL REMAIN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIGURE IN CHINESE POLITICS. SOME YOUNGER LEADERS WILL BE ELECTED TO SENIOR
POSITIONS, BUT THE SHAPE OF THE POST-DENG LEADERSHIP WILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
DETAIL
2.
THE 13TH NATIONAL CONGRESS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY WILL
OPEN ON 25 OCTOBER AND LAST FOR ABOUT TEN DAYS. IT WILL BE PRECEDED
BY THE 7TH PLENARY SESSION OF THE CURRENT (12TH) CENTRAL COMMITTEE, WHICH ACCORDING TO A GOOD SURCE OPENED ON 12 OCTOBER. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST PLENARY SESSION OF THE NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE
ELECTED AT THE CONGRESS.
3. ACTING GENERAL-SECRETARY ZHAO ZIYANG HAS SAID THAT THE CONGRESS
WILL BE OF FAR-REACHING INFLUENCE IN THE PARTY'S HISTORY. IT IS THE
LAST CONGRESS WHICH DENG XIAOPING CAN REASONABLY EXPECT TO ATTEND.
IT IS ALSO THE LAST CONGRESS AT WHICH THE SURVIVORS OF THE
GENERATION WHO MADE CHINA'S REVOLUTION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SAY.
IT IS AN IMPORTANT CONGRESS FOR THESE REASONS ALONE. SUCCESSORS
WILL HAVE TO BE FOUND TO LEAD CHINA INTO THE 21ST CENTURY AND STRATEGIES WILL HAVE TO BE ADOPTED TO WHICH FUTURE LEADERS CAN POINT
AS AGREED BOTH BY DENG AND BY THE OTHER REVOLUTIONARY LEADERS.
4.
IN MY DESPATCH OF 3 JULY, I DESCRIBED THE CHINESE POLITICAL
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