CONFIDENTIAL
031743
MDLIAN 2626
7. THESE WERE THE WORST DISTURBANCES IN TIB ET WHICH HAVE COME TO THE
NOTICE OF THE OUTSIDE WORLD FOR MANY YEARS. THEY NOW APPEAR TO BE UNDER CONTROL, BUT HAVE SHOWN THAT CHINESE RULE IS STILL FIERCELY RESENTED BY MANY TIBETANS AND THAT THE IRON FIST OF THE CHINESE
SECURITY FORCES STILL LURKS WITHIN THE VELVET GLOVE OF PEKING'S MORE
LIBERAL POLICIES OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. AS FAR AS TIBET IS CONCERNED, IF THERE ARE NO FURTHER DISTURBANCES, SECURITY WILL BE TIGHTENED UP BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE OTHER MORE POSITIVE ASPECTS
OF CENTRAL POLICY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY REVISED. THE CHINESE HAVE INVESTED TOO MUCH, IN TERMS OF THEIR INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION, IN THEM FOR THAT. BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY BE WARY OF ANY FURTHER RELAXATION.
IS
8. COMMUNICATION BY THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES WITH THE DALAI LAMA VIRTUALLY RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS. TENTATIVE CONTACTS
SINCE 1980 OR SO HAD NOT LED VERY FAR. THERE IS CLEARLY NOW VERY
LITTLE COMMON GROUND AND NO INCENTIVE FOR EITHER SIDE TO ALTER ITS ENTRENCHED POSITION.
9. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT
ON THE PARTY CONGRESS. IT IS TRUE THAT THEY PROVIDE AMMUNITION FOR CRITICS OF THE MORE OPEN POLICIES GENERALLY. BUT THEY WERE SWIFTLY CONTAINED: AND IN ANY CASE THEIR NATURE WAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THE STUDENT DEMONSTRATIONS LAST YEAR. DEMONSTRATING STUDENTS STRIKE MUCH MORE CLOSELY AT THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM AND THE REACTION
IS CORRESPONDINGLY GREATER. THAT SAID, THESE EVENTS MAY WELL PROVE YET ANOTHER NAIL IN THE COFFIN OF FORMER GENERAL SECRETARY HU YA OBANG, WHO WAS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ORIGINAL LIB ERAL POLICIES TOWARDS TIBET.
10. TIBET IS BOUND TO BE AN IRRITANT (AT THE LEAST) IN SINO-US
RELATIONS FOR SOME TIME. BUT NEITHER THE CHINESE NOR THE AMERICANS
CAN DERIVE ADVANTAGE FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF IT AND AS SEEN FROM
PEKING IT IS UNLIKELY TO BLOW THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS RIGHT OFF COURSE.
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