TNAG-1623-FCO40-2237-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-China-1987 — Page 84

advance copies (for weekend

PS

As/Lord Scenarter is

PS / PUS

to fillmore

box)

THE POLITICAL SCENE IN CHINA: JULY 1987

SUMMARY

1. The 13th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will be held in October 1987. How is it likely to turn out? This question is not as easy to answer as it would have seemed to be a year ago. There has been much turbulence in Chinese political life since then. The surface of China's politics is calm again now, but we know that plenty is going on below the surface (paragraphs 1 to 5).

2. The traditional spectrum of Chinese politics runs from utopians on the left to humanists on the right. The latent conflict of today

is between the humanists and bureaucrats in the tradition of Liu Shaoqi (paragraphs 6 to 9).

He

3. Deng Xiaoping remains the most powerful figure in China. stands for the continued pursuit of economic reform, the introduction of political reform and the preservation of what he regards as the essentials of socialism (paragraphs 10 to 14).

4. Political reform and the composition of the 13th Central Committee will certainly be on the agenda of the Congress. The atmosphere of the Congress will depend on the extent to which there is prior agreement within the party leadership about what the documents destined for its approval should say and on the mood of the delegates. It cannot be taken for granted that the delegates will be docile (paragraphs 15 to 18).

5.

It does not look as if a slate for the new Central Committee has yet been drawn up. Nor does it seem that the Party leadership has yet decided who should be the regular General-Secretary of the Central Committee or Premier. Deng Xiaoping will not surrender all his posts in the Party and the state, let alone fade from China's political life (paragraphs 19 to 22).

6. The current political scene in China has three main features. Political reform remains on the agenda. Economic reform is being pursued.

There is a new wave of illiberalism in the cultural sphere (paragraph 23).