TNAG-1621-FCO40-2235-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-China-1987 — Page 158

GRS 1500

CONFIDENTIAL

EM PEKING

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELNO 090

Confidential

OF 190911Z JANUARY 97

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ets

HAAKA 02011

INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG, TOKYO, WASHINGTON, MOSCOW

INFO SAVING SHANGHAI

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11

See 14

RECEIVED IN REGISTRY

21 JAN 1987

SK OFFICER

RNRY

PA

Act Taken

MY TELNOS 80, 81 AND 82: CHINESE LEADERSHIP

SUMMARY

1. HU YADBANG'S RESIGNATION IS THE BIGGEST POLITICAL UPHEAVAL IN CHINA SINCE THE THIRD PLENARY OF THE 11TH CENTRAL COMMITTEE IN NOVEMBER 1978, WHEN DENG XIAOPING AND THE REFORMERS PREVAILED OVER HUA GUOFENG, DENG WAS PERSONALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SELECTION OF HU AS GENERAL SECRETARY (A POST TO WHICH HE WAS APPOINTED IN 1980) AND RELIED ON HIM TO KEEP THE PARTY MOVING IN THE DIRECTIONS WHICH DENG FAVOURED. SOMETHING MUST HAVE GONE SERIOUSLY WRONG TO WARRANT HIS DISMISSAL (FOR THAT IS WHAT IT AMOUNTS TO), ESPECIALLY AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE REFORM PROGRAMME IN THE POLITICAL AND IDEOLOGICAL SHPERES IS NOW BACK IN THE MELTING POT. THE PROGRAMME COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED IN THE ECONOMIC SPHERE. THE WHOLE QUESTION OF THE SHAPE OF THE LEADERSHIP FOR THE REST OF THE 1980S IS NOW WIDE OPEN.

THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF HU'S DISMISSAL

2. EIGHTEEN FULL AND TWO ALTERNATE MEMBERS OF THE POLITRUPO WERE

THERE WERE ONLY TWO PRESENT AT ITS ENLARGED MEETING ON 16 JANUARY. ABSENTEES AMONG THE FULL MEMBERS: YANG DEZHI (CHIEF OF STAFF), WHO WAS IN THAILAND, AND (PROBABLY) LIXIANNIAN WHO WAS IN THIS NEARLY FULL ATTENDANCE, SHANGHAI ON BOTH 15 AND 17 JANUARY. TOGETHER WITH THE PRESENCE OF NINETEEN SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL ADVISORY COMMISSION OF THE CENTRAL COMMISSION FOR DISCIPLINE INSPECTION, SUGGESTS THAT THE MEETING HAD BEEN CAREFULLY ARRANGED. WE DO NOT YET KNOW WHO THE SPEAKERS WERE, APART FROM HU HIMSELF. BUT WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO PICK UP INFORMATION ABOUT THIS AS TIME

PASSES.

3. ACCORDING TO EARNSHAW, THE HEAD OF REUTERS, KYODO'S RECENT REPORTS ABOUT CONFLICTS WITHIN THE LEADERSHIP HAVE TURNED OUT TO DE EXTREMELY ACCURATE. EARNSHAW IS THEREFORE INCLINED TO GIVE CREDENCE TO KYODO'S STORY (WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED: I DO NOT HAVE THE MEANS TO CHECK) THAT DENG PERSONALLY CRITICISED HU FOR TAKING IMPORTANT DECISIONS WITHOUT CONSULTING HIM AND OTHER SENIOR LEADERS ON THREE SEPARATE OCCASIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 1986., HE ALSO ACCEPTS KYODO'S STORY THAT DENG DECIDED THAT HU MUST GO AFTER THE LATTER HAD BEEN ASKED TO DISMISS WANG RUOWANG DUDING A VISIT TO SHANGHAI AT THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER, BUT HAD RETURNED FROM SHANGHAI WITHOUT HAVING DONE THIS.

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Confidential

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