Confidential
TIME TO JUDGE THE OVERALL EFFECT. LOCAL CPPCC MEMBER XU SIMIN SAW
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AS 'ABNORMAL'', POINTING OUT THAT SENIOR
OFFICIALS WHO HAD THEORETICALLY RETIRED TO THE SECOND LINE'' HAD MADE COMMENTS ON THE RESIGNATION. HE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED HK
PEOPLE TO MAKE STRONGER CALLS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
**ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS' CONCEPT. BLDC MEMBER LOUIS CHA FELT
THAT THERE WOULD ONLY BE INDIRECT, ''PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTS ON
HK FROM HU'S RESIGNATION, BUT HE ADDED THAT, IF THE CLAMPDOWN
ON BOURGEOIS LIBERALISATION WERE EXTENDED TO HK, ''THERE WOULD BE
NO NEED TO DRAFT THE BL''.
COMMENTARIES:
9. THE LEFT-WING PRESS IN GENERAL CONTINUED TO MAKE REASSURING
NOISES. TA KUNG PAO SAID THAT THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST BOURGEOIS
LIBERALISATION WAS NOT (NOT) DIRECTED AT HK. ON THE OTHER HAND,
INDEPENDENT PAPERS SHOWED MORE CONCERN, ALTHOUGH SOME WERE
CAUTIOUS AND PREFERRED TO ADOPT A WAIT-AND-SEE ATTITUDE. SING TAO JIH PAO WAS ONE OF THOSE, ALTHOUGH IT WARNED THAT THERE COULD BE
STRONG REPERCUSSIONS IN THE PSYCHOLOGICAL SENSE''. THE EXPRESS
WAS MORE GLOOMY, SAYING THAT HU'S RESIGNATION WOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE
EFFECT ON HK'S STABILITY AND PROSPERITY. MING PAO HOPED THAT CHINA
WOULD STICK TO THE REFORM PROGRAMME AND THE PRINCIPLE OF
PRAGMATISM'', WHILE THE HK DAILY NEWS HOPED THAT XU JIATUN WOULD
FULLY REFLECT HK PEOPLE'S WORRIES TO THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP.
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10. SCMP ON 22 JANUARY SAID THE CRACKDOWN WOULD KEEP PEOPLE ON
THE IR TOES WITH THEIR HEADS DOWN. IF THAT WAS THE FULL EXTENT OF
IT, THE FALL-OUT WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EASY TARGETS (INTELLECTUALS, ACADEMICS, WRITERS), WHO WOULD BE THE POLITICAL SCAPEGOATS TO ENABLE DENG TO KEEP CHINA MOVING AHEAD WITH THE MINIMUM OF TROUBLE.
IF SO, THE PAPER EXPECTED THERE TO BE LITTLE EFFECT ON HK, BUT
WARNED PEOPLE NOT (NOT) TO EXPECT PEKING SUPPORT FOR ANY MOVEMENT
TOWARDS DIRECT ELECTIONS.
11. A COLUMNIST IN ECONOMIC JOURNAL ON 24 JANUARY SAID THAT
MANY CHINESE OFFICIALS STATIONED IN HK WERE WORRIED ABOUT THEIR
FUTURE AS A RESULT OF HU'S RESIGNATION. THEY WERE CONCERNED AS
TO WHETHER CHINA'S POLICY ON POSTING CADRES TO HK WOULD BE CHANGED,
WHETHER THEIR STAY IN HK WOULD BE SHORTENED AND WHETHER THEIR
FREEDOM HERE WOULD BE RESTRICTED. THEY WERE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT
THEIR PROSPECTS.
Confidential
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