TNAG-1602-FCO40-2198-Future-of-Hong-Kong-Basic-Law-1987 — Page 57

DIRECT ELECTIONS

5. DENG DID NOT RULE OUT DIRECT ELECTIONS ALTOGETHER. AT NATIONAL

LEVEL IN MAINLAND CHINA HE FORESAW THEIR POSSIBLE EMPLOYMENT ONLY

BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT CENTURY. HE POINTED OUT THAT AT

PRESENT DIRECT VOTING ONLY APPLIED TO BODIES AT COUNTY LEVEL AND

BELOW. (THIS COULD BE TAKEN AS A HINT THAT, IN HONG KONG, DIRECT

ELECTIONS WOULD ONLY BE APPROPRIATE AT BELOW THE TERRITORY-WIDE

LEVEL.) HE MADE CLEAR HIS PERSONAL DISTRUST OF DIRECT ELECTIONS FOR

HONG KONG, IN PARTICULAR HIS DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THEY WOULD PRODUCE

THE RIGHT 'PATRIOTIC'' PERSONALITIES. HIS CALL FOR CHANGE, IF ANY,

TO BE GRADUAL (LATCHING ONTO REMARKS IN MY ARRIVAL SPEECH) WAS CLEAR

AND TOTALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE CHINESE LINE ON THE 1987 REVIEW SO FAR.

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SAR RELATIONSHIP

6.

DENG'S REMARKS WERE SET IN THE CONTEXT OF THE NEED FOR PROLONGED

STABILITY IN CHINA AS A WHOLE. HE ALSO PUT MUCH STRESS ON THE

CONTRIBUTION WHICH ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS'' SHOULD PLAY IN

REUNIFICATION WITH SEVERAL REFERENCES TO THE APPLICATION OF THE

PRINCIPLE TO TAIWAN. HE MADE CLEAR THAT HONG KONG SHOULD NOT ROCK

THE BOAT AND THAT THE EXERCISE OF AUTONOMY, WHILE DESIRABLE IN ITSELF, WOULD BE MONITORED AND CONTAINED, THE TEST BEING THE

AVOIDANCE OF ANY OPPOSITION OR THREAT TO THE CENTRAL SOCIALIST

SYSTEM. THE REFERENCES TO THE POSSIBLE **MOBILISATION'' OF CHINESE

FORCES STATIONED IN HONG KONG, ALTHOUGH COUCHED IN TERMS OF THE HOPE THAT THEY WOULD NEVER HAVE TO BE USED, WERE POINTED. THEY WILL

BE SEEN BY MANY IN HONG KONG AS A SIGN THAT DENG AND THE REST OF

THE LEADERSH P ARE STILL INSUFFICIENTLY SENSITIVE TO THE EFFECT

.OF BLUNTNESS ON CONFIDENCE. THERE MAY ALSO BE WORRIES THAT HARD-

LINE ELEMENTS IN THE LEADERSHIP, INCLUDING THE PLA ARE INFLUENCING CURRENT STATEMENTS.

TALKS WITH CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTER

7. ON DIRECT ELECTIONS, DENG'S REMARKS MAKE IT CLEAR THAT WU WILL CONTINUE TO URGE DELAY IN IMPLEMENTATION. GIVEN THIS, WE MUST DO WHAT WE CAN TO BUILD ON DENG'S INDICATION THAT DIRECT ELECTIONS ARE

NOT RULED OUT. WE COULD ALSO MAKE USE OF HIS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT OUR APPROACH WILL BE ''PRUDENT AND GRADUAL''.

IN NO CASE WOULD THE

REVIEW RESULT IN MORE THAN A SMALL PROPORTION OF DIRECT VOTING IN

CHOOSING THE LEGISLATURE (DENG RATHER CONFUSINGLY USED THE TERM **GENERAL ELECTIONS THROUGHOUT HIS SPEECH). ''PRUDENCE'' WOULD REQUIRE US TO RESPOND APPROPRIATELY TO A CLEAR-CUT AND SUBSTANTIAL

MAJORITY VIEW IN FAVOUR OF SOME ELEMENT OF DIRECT ELECTIONS IN

1988 IF (REPEAT IF) THAT IS THE OUTCOME OF THE 1987 REVIEW. DENG'S REMARK THAT THE SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A COUNTRY OR TERRITORY SOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN CHOOSING ELECTORAL SYSTEMS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO POINT TO HONG KONG'S OWN SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES, WHERE A MIXED SYSTEM MAY WELL 3E BEST IN THE LONG RUN.

CONFIDENTIAL

Redacted under FOI exemption 27(1)

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