TNAG-1596-FCO40-2181-Constitutional-development-in-Hong-Kong-1988 — Page 18

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of Hong Kong convinced that by having a directly-elected element in this Council, and thus almost by definition a group of full- time professional politicians, we shall see an improvement in the performance of the political system, or help the Government to avoid the "lame duck" label - in other words, will direct elections increase Government's political kudos? I doubt it. On the contrary, I believe that the need for constant political bargaining with the populist elements to maintain an appearance of effective Government will tend to reduce Government's authority and decision-making flexibility. The tendency will then be to bolster its position again by closing bureaucratic

ranks and also by relying more on China to support its dwindling authority in dealing with the opposition. What appears to be a move towards greater democracy could therefore turn out to have the effect of prompting more autocratic rule.

Conversely, if direct elections are not readily introduced, are we so afraid that Government will lose all political credit so as to force the people of Hong Kong to accept accommodation with the political activists now even at the risk of certain challenges to Government's ability to govern in future? Have my honourable colleagues and has the Administration considered how to deal with the frustrations that will build up in the community if the directly-elected members of this Council are not seen to be "effective"? Do we not have to expect that there will be continuous pressure to promptly increase the number of directly- elected members so they can become the majority and then can be seen to reflect the wishes of the people in the formulation and implementation of policies? If this end-result is implicitly contained in the present proposals and accepted as such, then I shall hold my tongue; all I can say is that it is nowhere clearly mentioned. There certainly will be no going back; and to all those who are willing to accept the options now proposed on the basis that they are an experiment only or a test run, I can only say that they are fooling themselves. If we make that first step we shall have to continue walking, however rocky the road will get.