TNAG-1592-FCO40-2177-Appointment-of-Sir-David-Wilson-as-new-Governor-of-Hong-Kong-1987 — Page 22

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14 APR 1987

SIR D WILSON'S LUNCHTIME SEMINAR ON CHINA ON 1 APRIL

It may be useful if I comment on a few of the points raised at Sir D Wilson's informal seminar.

1.

Questions of Succession

2.

There seemed to be a consensus that Deng would not resign at the 13th Party Congress in October, or at least that he would remain the key figure, even if he should give up one or both of the posts of Chairman of the Military Commission and Chairman of the Advisory Commission. In my own view, he would be more likely to retain the Advisory Commission post, which under the present Party Constitution

(like the Military Commission post) carries with it membership of the Politburo Standing Committee.

3. The general view about prospects for further development of the reforms was rather pessimistic. One participant suggested that Zhao was unlikely to be able to consolidate his authority satisfactorily without Deng continuing to play something like his present role. It seems to me fair to say that the evidence of recent events does not give much ground for confidence that Zhao and the other reformers will easily be able to achieve dominance after Deng's departure.

4.

Most participants appeared to accept that if Deng were to relinquish the Chairmanship of the Military Commission, his successor in that post would probably be a military figure, because no civilian leader could be identified who was acceptable both to the reformers and to the military. The choice of Yu Qiuli (aged 72) would be a more serious setback to the reformers than the appointment of Yang Dezhi or Yang Shangkun (aged 78 and 79 respectively). I would add that an outsider possibly favoured by the reformers is Qin Jiwei (75), currently Commander of Peking Military Region.

5.

I raised the question of the implications of the failure to take the opportunity of the National People's Congress to appoint a successor to Zhao. (The China Daily reported on 30 March that Yao Yilin had announced that Zhao would continue to serve as both acting General Secretary of the Party and Premier until the 13th Congress.) The general view seemed to be that a failure to appoint a new Premier now indicated the difficulty of reaching agreement within the leadership on the several key appointments which should be decided by the time of the Congress.

Li Peng was seen as the most likely successor to Zhao as Premier, although Yao Yilin was mentioned as another possibility. Li Peng was regarded by some participants as clearly pro-Soviet, on the basis of his performance during his visit to Moscow in 1985. This seems to me to be going too far. Although Li may have

6.

CONFIDENTIAL