12. THERE ARE THUS NO INDICATIONS THAT THE POLICY ADOPTED BY HONG KONG IN 1984 MIGHT BE ACCEPTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ANY CHANGES WILL REQUIRE A CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT IN RELATIONS WITH THE VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT. BUT NO APPROACH HAS BEEN MADE TO THEM AND, UNTIL IT HAS BEEN MADE, IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHAT THEIR RESPONSE MIGHT BE.
FORECAST OF HONG KONG'S REFUGEE PROBLEM
13. AS NEITHER THE RATE OF ARRIVALS NOR THE RATE OF DEPARTURES ARE UNDER OUR CONTROL, FORECASTS OF THE FUTURE REFUGEE POPULATION IN HONG KONG ARE DIFFICULT. BOTH ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES HAVE
TENDED TO FLUCTUATE. AS REGARDS THE LATTER, THE THREE MAIN RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES (AUSTRALIA, CANADA AND THE USA) HAVE ADVISED THAT THEY WILL REDUCE THEIR OFFTAKE FROM HONG KONG NEXT YEAR. THE AUSTRALIANS INTEND TO TAKE 400 REFUGEES, A REDUCTION FROM THIS YEAR'S OFFTAKE OF 600 TO THEIR 1985 LEVEL. THEY HAVE ADVISED THAT BECAUSE THEY CAN TAKE ONLY GENUINE REFUGEES WHO ALSO MEET THEIR RESETTLEMENT CRITERIA (MAINLY FAMILY REUNION CASES), THEY MIGHT BE UNABLE TO FIND SUFFICIENT SUITABLE CADIDATES TO
MEET EVEN THEIR REDUCED QUOTA.
14. THE CANADIANS SAY THEY WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE 500 PLACES NEXT YEAR, COMPARED WITH 1,050 THIS YEAR. SINCE THEIR RESETTLEMENT CRITERIA ARE MORE RELAXED, THEY SHOULD HAVE NO DIFFICULTY FILLING THESE PLACES.
15. THE AMERICANS HAVE BEEN FINDING DIFFICULTY IN MEETING THEIR
QUOTA FOR SEV
RAL MONTHS. THEY HAVE ADVISED THAT NEXT YEAR THEY MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO MEET THEIR TARGET OF 700, WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION FROM THIS YEAR'S FIGURE OF 1,500.
16. THE UK FAMILY REUNION CASES HAVE BEEN HALTED BY HMG WHILE IT CLARIFIES THE TOTAL NUMBER OF ELIGIBLE REFUGEES HERE. THE NUMBER OF REFUGEES WHO HAVE ALREADY LEFT HONG KONG FOR THE UK IS 457. THE VOLUNTARY AGENCIES IN THE UK NOW ESTIMATE THAT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER 800 ELIGIBLE UNDER THE UK'S RELAXED CRITERIA. HMG HAS YET TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER TO CONTINUE AN OFFTAKE FROM HONG KONG, BUT THE PRESENT INTERRUPTION HAS HINDERED THE RESETT- LEMENT PROSPECTS OF HONG KONG'S REFUGEES IN OTHER COUNTRIES.
17. THE THREE MAIN RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES HAVE STATED QUITE CATEGOR- ICALLY THAT THEY LOOK TO HMG TO SHOW THE LEAD. THEY TOLD THE MINISTER OF STATE AT THE HOME OFFICE, MR WADDINGTON, WHEN HE VISITED HONG KONG IN SEPTEMBER, THAT THEY HAD BEEN PROVIDING RESETTLEMENT PLACES FOR HONG KONG'S REFUGEES EACH MONTH FOR MANY YEARS BUT THEY WERE FACING INCREASING DOMESTIC PRESSURES TO CUT BACK BECAUSE HMG WAS NOT TAKING REFUGEES FROM HONG KONG. OTHER RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES HAVE ECHOED THESE SENTIMENTS. THE CANADIANS
HAVE STATED EXPLICITLY THAT THEY WILL PROVIDE MORE PLACES FOR
4 CONFIDENTIAL
HONG KON
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