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12. THERE ARE THUS NO INDICATIONS THAT THE POLICY ADOPTED BY
HONG KONG IN 1984 MIGHT BE ACCEPTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ANY CHANGES WILL REQUIRE A CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT IN RELATIONS
WITH THE VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT. BUT NO APPROACH HAS BEEN MADE TO
THEM AND, UNTIL IT HAS BEEN MADE, IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHAT THE IR
RESPONSE MIGHT BE.
FORECAST OF HONG KONG'S REFUGEE PROBLEM
13. AS NEITHER THE RATE OF ARRIVALS NOR THE RATE OF DEPARTURES
ARE UNDER OUR CONTROL, FORECASTS OF THE FUTURE REFUGEE POPULATION
IN HONG KONG ARE DIFFICULT. BOTH ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES HAVE
TENDED TO FLUCTUATE. AS REGARDS THE LATTER, THE THREE MAIN
RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES (AUSTRALIA, CANADA AND THE USA) HAVE ADVISED THAT THEY WILL REDUCE THEIR OFFTAKE FROM HONG KONG NEXT
YEAR. THE AUSTRALIANS INTEND TO TAKE 400 REFUGEES, A REDUCTION FROM THIS YEAR'S OFFTAKE OF 600 TO THEIR 1985 LEVEL. THEY HAVE
ADVISED THAT BECAUSE THEY CAN TAKE ONLY GENUINE REFUGEES WHO ALSO
MEET THEIR RESETTLEMENT CRITERIA (MAINLY FAMILY REUNION CASES),
THEY MIGHT BE UNABLE TO FIND SUFFICIENT SUITABLE CADIDATES TO
MEET EVEN THEIR REDUCED QUOTA.
14. THE CANADIANS SAY THEY WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE 500 PLACES NEXT YEAR, COMPARED WITH 1,050 THIS YEAR. SINCE THEIR RESETTLEMENT CRITERIA ARE MORE RELAXED, THEY SHOULD HAVE NO
DIFFICULTY FILLING THESE PLACES.
15. THE AMERICANS HAVE BEEN FINDING DIFFICULTY IN MEETING THEIR
QUOTA FOR SEV
RAL MONTHS. THEY HAVE ADVISED THAT NEXT YEAR THEY
MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO MEET THEIR TARGET OF 700, WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION FROM THIS YEAR'S FIGURE OF 1,500.
16. THE UK FAMILY REUNION CASES HAVE BEEN HALTED BY HMG WHILE IT CLARIFIES THE TOTAL NUMBER OF ELIGIBLE REFUGEES HERE. THE NUMBER
OF REFUGEES WHO HAVE ALREADY LEFT HONG KONG FOR THE UK IS 457.
THE VOLUNTARY AGENCIES IN THE UK NOW ESTIMATE THAT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER 800 ELIGIBLE UNDER THE UK'S RELAXED CRITERIA. HMG HAS YET TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER TO CONTINUE AN OFFTAKE FROM
HONG KONG, BUT THE PRESENT INTERRUPTION HAS HINDERED THE RESETT-
LEMENT PROSPECTS OF HONG KONG'S REFUGEES IN OTHER COUNTRIES.
17. THE THREE MAIN RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES HAVE STATED QUITE CATEGOR-
ICALLY THAT THEY LOOK TO HMG TO SHOW THE LEAD. THEY TOLD THE MINISTER OF STATE AT THE HOME OFFICE, MR WADDINGTON, WHEN HE VISITED HONG KONG IN SEPTEMBER, THAT THEY HAD BEEN PROVIDING RESETTLEMENT PLACES FOR HONG KONG'S REFUGEES EACH MONTH FOR MANY YEARS BUT
THEY WERE FACING INCREASING DOMESTIC PRESSURES TO CUT BACK
BECAUSE HMG WAS NOT TAKING REFUGEES FROM HONG KONG. OTHER RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES HAVE ECHOED THESE SENTIMENTS. THE CANADIANS
HAVE STATED EXPLICITLY THAT THEY WILL PROVIDE MORE PLACES FOR
CONFIDENTIAL
HONG KON
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