TNAG-1531-FCO40-2095-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-general-1987 — Page 85

Base case, counterfactual

proposed

inputs,

actions,

intermediate objectives and ultimate

objectives and aims.

c.

assumptions about factors in the

external environment ie outside

the Government's direct

control

which may affect the outcome of

the policy. (See Environment).

Proper evaluation of a policy's effects

must be relative to a base case, ie

a statement of what would have happened

Government intervention

without

or

if Government intervention had taken

a

different

form. In many cases the

most sensible baseline may be the

cóntinuation of previous policy. It

may

not be

enough

just to

describe

the starting position since this would

have changed anyway. It may be useful

to

establish

the base case either by

statistical

analysis and projection

or by setting up

'control group',

for example outside the region to which

the policy applies.

Benefits

the

outputs

positive value

of

or

utility of

the

policy. a

The

benefits

3