TNAG-1529-FCO40-2093-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-general-1986 — Page 222

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HKK 243/3

Foreign and Commonwealth OffiC RECEIVED IN REGIS

London SW1A 2AH

Telephone 01-23

27 JUN 1986

DESK OFFICER

INDEX5073

PA

Suhr JakEN

ая

M JH Wood Esq HANOI

RA VR sen pla

क

Your reference

Our reference

Date

25 June 1986

سلام

VIETNAM: POPULATION PROBLEMS

Please refer to your Ambassador's letter of 9 April to Christian Adams.

1.

2.

The population problem is clearly a key one in Vietnam. However effective the economic reforms may be in recharging the economy, it will be to little avail if the population continues to gallop ahead. One redeeming feature would seem to be the readiness of the Vietnamese Government to acknowledge the extent of the problem, and their apparent desire to do something about it. I understand though that the Vietnamese have not opted for measures as drastic as those imposed in China to limit the size of families. Clearly, if the Vietnamese population explodes to around a hundred million by the year 2000, there are likely to be severe social and political consequences. These could, as Mr Tallboys suggests in his para 4, have implications beyond Vietnam's borders, particularly in neigh- bouring Cambodia and Laos, and in first asylum countries in the area, including Hong Kong, and resettlement countries in the West.

Economic Advisers (David Woodward) have commented as follows on Mr Tallboys' letter:

3.

"Rapid population growth is an almost universal problem in developing and particularly low-income countries. A major cause of this in many cases is the high birth rate in rural areas resulting from traditional social and economic factors such as those described in the second VNA article. Typically these factors lead to a high national growth rate of population in the countryside, which spreads to the urban areas as people flock to the cities in search of better economic opportunities. (Because of this, the link between numbers of children per couple and population growth rates in particular areas is less direct than is suggested for Hanoi by the first VNA article.)

Tackling these underlying problems is notoriously difficult. While it might be possible to reform the

/socio-economic

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